Market report
As of 08/18/2023 4:09 PM
The salami crash continued on the stock exchange over the weekend. Interest rate and China fears keep the market firmly in its grip. DAX gives way and heads towards a weak weekly balance sheet.
Anyone hoping for a counter move in DAX at the end of the week will be disappointed today. Despite the price level being lower around 15,500 points in the leading German index, bargain hunters are nowhere in sight. The DAX is losing just over one percent and has already fallen below the 15,500-point mark at a low of 15,473 points. The leading German index is currently just below it. On a weekly basis, this indicates a negative of just over 2.00 percent. The MDAX index of medium-sized companies fell more sharply, down 1.8 percent.
The next technical support line in DAX will be the July low at 15,456 points, after the index broke the 15,700 points barrier yesterday and collapsed from a sideways movement between 15,700 and 16,000 points.
„It seems that the air from the stock market has disappeared and the rally rally since the beginning of the month is far from over,” wrote analyst Konstantin Oldenburger of trading firm CMC Markets.
In addition, contrary to the hopes of investors, interest rates can remain high for a longer period of time. „There is a noticeable repricing of long-term interest rates,” said BlackRock Investment Institute strategist Jean Boivin. The market increasingly believes that despite the recent advances, there will be long-term inflationary pressures. Macroeconomic uncertainty will persist for years to come, necessitating greater compensation for holding long-term bonds in the form of higher interest rates.
The background to the currently bad mood in the market are concerns about economic growth in China after the recent weak economic data, but especially the unclear US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate meeting, which were published on Wednesday, left markets in a limbo in this regard, causing uncertainty around the world ever since.
Regarding China, problems at real estate giant Evergrande and Country Garden have recently caused tremors about the state of the Chinese economy. China’s central bank is likely to try to boost the sluggish economy by cutting key interest rates on Monday. Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in the US today, adding to the fire.
However, analysts are skeptical. “From our point of view, Beijing can do very little to support the economy,” says Mark Dowding, asset manager at RBC BlueBay. „In many ways, China’s problems today are similar to those Japan faced in the 1990s.”
At the same time, speculation continues about the future monetary policy path of the US Federal Reserve. The main focus will be on the annual conference of monetary authorities in Jackson Hole, which begins next Thursday. „It is uncertain whether they will draw any new conclusions about the path of interest rate increase in the Rocky Mountains,” the experts at Helaba wrote.
The theme for this year’s three-day meeting of central bank governors in the US state of Wyoming is „Structural Changes in the Global Economy”. Investors are hoping for a hint as to how interest rate policy in the US will continue. Last year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell used the forum hosted by the Kansas City Fed District to announce a long fight against inflation.
Wall Street is also heading for another day of losses, and it will be the fourth day in a row. The leading Dow Jones lost a moderate 0.2 percent, the Nasdaq Technologies Index lost nearly 1 percent, and the market-wide S&P 500 lost half a percent.
Oil prices are currently changing only slightly. Thus, the lists stabilized as the previous day, after decreasing significantly over the course of the week. The price of a barrel of Brent North Sea (159 liters) for delivery in October was $84.24 in the afternoon, up 0.4 percent from yesterday.
Thus, the oil market is heading towards the first week of falling prices, after previously prices tended to rise since the beginning of July. Above all, concerns about continued weak economic development in China have affected oil prices recently.
After recent losses against the dollar, the common European currency settled below the $1.09 level at the end of the week. The Euro is currently trending sideways at $1.0873.
Bitcoin continues to suffer from the potential for higher interest rates in the bond markets in the long term. There is also a report of US billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX selling Bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin price continues its decline from the previous day and drops towards $26,000, its lowest level in two months.
Suse’s share of SDAX has come into the spotlight among individual stocks on the German stock market. The Linux software company’s titles jumped 60% to €15.36. Swedish financial investor EQT wants to take Nuremberg off the stock exchange two years after its initial public offering. EQT announced Thursday evening a takeover offer to the remaining shareholders for €16 per share, valued at €2.72 billion.
The Volkswagen Group continues to struggle with the cooling demand for new cars. With 773,000 vehicles across all of the group’s brands, 6.6 percent more cars were delivered in July compared to the weak month in the previous year, the group announced on Friday. In the first half of the year, the increase was still 12.8 percent due to a higher order backlog than the previous year.
Car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz continues to face problems with possible faulty fuel pumps. After a major recall in the USA, the group now recalls 231,249 vehicles in workshops in China, Chinese supervisory authority SAMR (State Administration for Market Regulation) announced in Beijing today.
After Adyen’s share price fell the previous day, it continued to fall at the end of the week. Target price cuts rained down, and some analysts also pulled their buy recommendations. The day before alone, after disastrous quarterly numbers, about 40 percent of Adyen’s stock market value, around 18 billion euros, was destroyed in one fell swoop.
According to a press report, the European Central Bank (ECB) has objections to the excess profits tax for banks passed in Italy. Corriere della Sera daily reports that the European Central Bank is preparing a similar letter for Italy. The tax announcement caused severe turmoil in the shares of Italian banks.
Swiss drugmaker Novartis is moving ahead with an initial public offering for its generic drug division Sandoz. Shareholders will receive one Sandoz share for every five shares they own in Novartis. Novartis plans to list Sandoz on the SIX Swiss Exchange and offer American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in the United States. The Sandoz spin-off is scheduled to premiere on October 4, 2023.
Applied Materials beat market expectations with its fourth-quarter outlook. The chip supplier assumed sales of $6.51 billion (plus or minus $400 million) and cited billions of dollars in subsidies from governments in the United States, Europe and Japan to build chip factories.