Every time the number of refugees in Germany increases, the so-called pull factors are discussed in politics. Migration experts have long considered this theory outdated.

The war of Russian aggression in Ukraine, as well as the tense situations in Syria and Afghanistan: the number of refugees in Germany is much higher than in previous years. The Cities and municipalities have already sounded the alarmHe called for more federal housing support. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Visser spoke of a „strong humanitarian tour”.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz also participated in the discussionHe warned of the „wrong incentives” in light of the social benefits of refugees in Germany. Merz used the so-called attractions as the reason for this. People from many countries will be attracted by the financial resources they will have in Germany. Even before the 2020 federal election, the CDU had already mentioned the attraction factor in the electoral platform.

The theory dates back to the 1960s

Push and pull theory dates back to the American sociologist Everett Lee in the 1960s. Try to establish global factors for migration movements. He distinguished for me two categories: push factors – from the English word to push factors – and pull factors – from the English word to pull (pull).

Push factors describe negative conditions in the country of origin that „push” people away from their countries. This included, for example, wars, environmental disasters or poverty. Attractions, on the other hand, are the positive conditions in the target country that “attract” people, such as a higher standard of living or a need for workers.

Lee’s theory is brought up time and time again when it comes to the topic of immigration – especially when the numbers are increasing. But also with regard to sea rescues in the Mediterranean, there is always the accusation that the rescue itself creates incentives to flee.

„It’s a vague idea, nothing more.”

On the other hand, in immigration research, Lee’s theory has always been considered outdated. „I would say it’s a very vague idea, nothing more,” says Frank Kalter, director of the German Center for Research on Integration and Migration (DeZIM). For a long time, the topic of immigration was thought out in a very economical way. There are many other factors that can be critical to immigration. However, in the public debate, these factors are „greatly underestimated, while economic factors are greatly overestimated”.

In addition, it is not possible to „eliminate any structural factors as causes of flight without knowing the individuals’ decision-making behavior,” says Kalter. „Reality is more complex than this model suggests.” If people choose their destination countries for economic reasons only, then “the whole world must be in motion”. But it is not. „And that’s because the actors throw so many other things into their equation.”

Researchers are using other methods

For Tobias Heidland, head of the Center for International Development Research at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the idea of ​​push and pull factors is not enough. The theory is considered „somewhat outdated” in migration research. „The main reason for that is that it’s a relatively rigid construction,” Heidland says.

Heidland says that in immigration research, there are two things that are being considered systematically these days. First: Who has the desire to emigrate? This can happen due to all kinds of factors. In the second step, the question remains: Which of the people who want to go to another country actually has the opportunity to do so, for example financially? “This allows us to understand more precisely why people migrate in certain contexts, and in particular, why not many people migrate?” Heidland says.

Social communication and language are more important

Of course, factors like income and standard of living also play a role in choosing a destination country, says Heidland. „Am I being treated badly there and have no opportunity to earn a living or is it a country that offers me certain opportunities? This is especially important if you do not expect to be able to return to your country of origin quickly.”

However, people are often unable to make economic calculations when choosing a destination country, „because the motives to flee are usually quite unexpected,” says Kalter. Social networks or language played a „much bigger role” in the decision to flee. “Association with relatives and friends is quite the dominant motivator.”

This is also shown by the numbers: Because most Ukrainians, for example, fled to Poland. On the other hand, most of the Syrian refugees are registered in Turkey. “This is something that is always completely underestimated from our point of view: that it is usually the immediate neighbors that receive the largest number of refugees in crises,” Calter says. This is because there are already existing relationships and geographical and cultural affinity.

A 'welcome policy’ is not a sustainable factor

A study that Heidland created with IfW colleague Jasper Tjaden also shows how little one factor, such as the 2015 „welcome policy” under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has a lasting impact on migration. In the short term, Heidland says, there have been a large number of refugees due to the war in Syria.

Especially since many of the people who fled to Europe at the time had already set off before Merkel decided not to close the borders, Heidland says. Therefore, advertising had no role in their escape.

Labor migration within the European Union

Heidland also points out that the majority of migration that occurs is not refugee migration at all – except for years like 2015 or now 2022. “Usually, 90 percent or more of migration is mainly work and education migration, i.e. most of it within the EU.” This is often not reflected in public discussions by the media and politicians.

Every year more than one million people come to Germany and more than one million people leave it. „Net migration is usually less than 500,000,” Heidland says. Without annual immigration from abroad, Germany has been shrinking due to a low birth rate since the 1970s.

For migrant workers, too, language is one of the most important factors in choosing a destination country, says Heidland. „Of course, success in the job market depends on it.” That is why migration flows between Germany and Switzerland, Denmark and Poland are also significantly higher than between the Balkan countries and Germany, for example. „These are factors such as physical proximity, language, and similarly operating labor markets.”