Status: 12/17/2022 08:30 AM
Because of the lower temperatures, less gas was made available in December than experts had requested. Is there a shortage of gas now? The current data helps in the classification. They show how cold it is compared to previous years and how much gas is used.
Written by Anna Bernd, Klaus Hesseling
The Federal Network Agency calls for savings of at least 20 percent over previous years. This is the only way to avoid gas shortages this winter with some certainty. But at the beginning of December, far less than necessary was provided. The head of the authority, Klaus Müller, told Tagesspiegel: „If this stays out of the way, you don’t have to worry about it.” Mueller warned that „it will remain cold in the next few days. Therefore, it is important that we do not waver in our efforts to save and that we hold out throughout the winter.” Although gas storage facilities in Germany are still full, the weather plays a crucial role, as more heating is required when temperatures are lower and therefore more gas is consumed.
Temperature and gas consumption: the data is updated weekly
The following graphs show how much gas has been used recently compared to previous years and how outdoor temperatures have compared historically. It is updated weekly with data from the Federal Network Agency and the German Weather Service.
Current gas consumption in Germany
Weekly average temperature
Gas consumption is 5.2 percent lower than the average of previous years
In the calendar week of 05.12.2019 the average temperature was 0.2°C. The temperature was 2.7 degrees lower than the corresponding weekly average for the years 2018 to 2021. At the same time, 5.2 percent less gas was used during the week. If one calculates the effect of temperature and only takes into account the savings efforts by gas consumers, according to the Federal Grid Agency, consumption was actually 12 percent lower than in the corresponding comparison period of previous years. The Federal Network Agency always considers the last two calendar weeks.
Higher temperatures and lower gas consumption
October and the first half of November have been warmer than average this year. Accordingly, gas savings in industry and households were much higher. In the last week of October, for example, one-third less gas is used than in previous years. Only when the cold weather set in did the savings drop significantly.
Only the consumption data of large consumers – eg industry and power plants – is measured daily: the principle is called Energy Measurement Logging, RLM for short. Data is collected by the Gas Network Manager Trading Hub Europe (THE). The consumption of households and smaller commercial customers (the so-called SLP data, Standard Load Profile) can only be determined indirectly and is subject to a certain degree of imprecision. Therefore, there are regular post-corrections in the data provided by the Federal Network Agency, so that the above values remain subject to change after publication.
In order to assess the current situation, the Federal Grid Agency takes into account five factors, which are updated regularly: In addition to gas storage levels and temperature-adjusted gas consumption, temperature forecasts and the situation in neighboring countries play an important role. Function. The authority is also looking to purchase what is called control power. This means the amount of gas required to compensate for fluctuations in daily intake.
Federal Network Agency: The situation is tense
The Federal Grid Agency currently classifies gas supplies in Germany as stable. Supply security is currently guaranteed. However, an exacerbation of the tense situation cannot be ruled out.
More information
The Bundesnetzagentur’s assessment is based on five criteria, including temperature and gas consumption. more
„There are currently no general or regional supply bottlenecks,” the Gas Transmission Systems Operators Association wrote when asked by the NDR. It is said that one does not want to speculate whether such jams can occur during the winter season.
Reversing the flow direction: a special challenge
The fact that more gas is now flowing from west to east as a result of the collapse of Russian supplies presents particular challenges for gas network operators. Because unlike electricity, gas cannot be sent in all directions in the pipeline network at will. If the flows reverse, sometimes significant technical adjustments are necessary. For example, the pressure in the grate must be adjusted everywhere for the gas to flow properly. For example, it may be necessary to convert the so-called compression stations that compress the gas.
According to network operators, solutions to this difficult situation have been developed as part of joint network planning processes so that there are no territorial bottlenecks.
Gas savings in the European Union countries in comparison
In a European comparison, Germany is currently in the middle when it comes to gas savings. Energy experts from the Bruegel Research Center in Brussels compiled data on gas consumption in European countries from various sources.
Overall, countries for which data is already available consumed about 23 percent less gas in November than the corresponding monthly average for the years 2019 to 2021. In contrast to the above data from the Federal Grid Agency, Bruegel points to an average of three rather than four years prior.
EU member states are required to cut their consumption by 15% between August 2022 and the end of March 2023 compared to the average of the previous five years. This says the EU Commission’s invasive emergency plan. However, the savings program is not mandatory.
More information
The scenarios show how quickly gas storage tanks are depleted in the winter. Only savings can prevent shortages. more
Current data shows what new customers are currently paying for gas and how the price has evolved in historical comparison. more
How do gas and electricity price brakes work? Who benefits from the December discount? Questions and answers about the energy crisis. more
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NDR info | 12/12/2022 | 8:40 a.m