China is easing its anti-coronavirus policy
The dangerous price of freedom

by Hedviga Nyarsik
December 8, 2022, 8:00 p.m

The protests in China seem to be working: the government in Beijing has promised to ease its strict zero Covid policy for the first time. However, experts fear that this step will not only lead to a huge wave of infections, but also to many deaths.

Daily coronavirus tests, enforced lockdowns and quarantines: Life in China has been marked by strict censorship for three years. This must end now. Because just a week after protests against the brutal no-Covid policy erupted across the country, the government in Beijing is making a sudden 180-degree turn. And this is in the midst of the deadliest wave of infections the country has ever seen.

For a long time, China has worked well with its strategy — at least in terms of containing the virus. While wave after wave has swept through most countries, China has managed to contain the coronavirus very well. However, it may only be a matter of time before a new variant is so highly immunosuppressive and contagious that even China’s drastic measures are powerless to stop it. With Omikron, the time has finally come.

But instead of preparing for such a scenario with, say, an incremental booster vaccination campaign, the Chinese leadership has pushed its own Covid-free strategy. In some cases, entire regions were cordoned off for weeks, and hundreds of thousands of people were stuck in their homes or – even worse – in quarantine camps. Meanwhile, the rate of daily vaccinations has fallen to a record low. Intensive care beds have remained scarce, but more and more testing booths and isolation facilities are sprouting from the ground. In addition, research into domestic mRNA vaccines has not kept pace with the rapidly evolving virus.

In light of the spread of the omicron variant and the population’s simultaneous growing aspirations for freedom, China was in trouble. With the announced easing, the central government is now taking a first step towards normalcy – but not without risks. According to state media, the former deputy director of the Chinese Health Department, Feng Zijian, assumes that 80 to 90 percent of the population will be infected. This, in turn, could lead to a flood of corona deaths. Already warned in May Study by Fudan University in Shanghai You face a “tsunami” of Covid cases and nearly 1.6 million deaths if China abandons its “zero Covid” policy.

„darkest moment”

After the recent outbreak in Beijing, hospitals in the capital are already experiencing an influx of infected people and a shortage of staff. „The emergency room is full of patients,” a nurse told Yicai magazine. „Many patients who come to the emergency room test positive after a PCR test.” An article is circulating in the medical community that the next month or two will be the „darkest moment” for the medical staff. “Patients who are positive accumulate fever in the clinic and there are many complications,” said the hospital’s intensive care physician.

„The reality is that China is not prepared for a wave of this magnitude,” said Siddharth Sridhar, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong. „The New York Times”. Only 60 percent of the population has been vaccinated three times against the virus. It is known that vaccines approved in China better protect against the development of severe disease when given three times. Even then, according to studies, they are less reliable than mRNA vaccines. However, it is not yet approved for the local population in China.

This may be particularly dangerous for the elderly population. Two-thirds of those over 80 have been vaccinated, but only 40 percent have received a booster shot. There was one Investigation during an omicron wave in Hong Kong It showed earlier this year that two doses of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine only protected 58 percent of people 80 and over from a severe course of Covid. However, two doses of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine were 87 percent effective in the same group.

In addition, most Chinese people received their last vaccination a long time ago. This also reduces protection against serious diseases. According to observers, the zero Covid strategy has complicated vaccination efforts. Andy Chan, an analyst at a Shanghai-based consulting firm, tells The New York Times that reducing infections saves lives, but at the same time many elderly people don’t realize the urgency of vaccination.

A „tsunami” of covid cases

Now, the Omicron strain of coronavirus usually causes less severe courses. This is how the government justifies mitigation steps. According to Beijing, the virus has changed. More than 95 percent of cases in China are asymptomatic and mild, and the fatality rate is low. However, scientists suspect that omicrons are completely harmless to China. Virologist Sridhar wrote on Twitter that even if 95 percent of cases are asymptomatic, if there was a massive surge in infections, the remaining five percent was enough to push the health system to its limits.

China has already announced plans to set up mobile vaccination stations, deliver vaccinations to nursing homes, and go door-to-door to reach the most vulnerable. However, it is doubtful whether this will succeed in time before the fearful wave spreads over the country. In addition, new variants could spread if the virus now infects millions of people in China without adequate immune protection. „We’re already seeing variants, for example from Asia, that are altered at even more points in the spike protein that the virus infects our cells with,” he said. Immunologist Lev Eric Sander From the Berlin Charité in conversation with ntv.de. If such variants prevail, a large number of infections can be expected.

There are now more ways to treat Covid-19 antiviral in China. In addition, four new Chinese vaccines have received emergency approval, three protein vaccines and one nasal spray vaccine. It’s a matter of keeping the infection curve „flat”, says a European health expert in Beijing. It is „a race between the virus and the vaccines – with a somewhat unknown outcome in terms of the number of deaths.”