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Planned counterattack in Ukraine war baffles experts

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Planned counterattack in Ukraine war baffles experts
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from: Nadia Zensmeester

Kiev reported progress in the Bakhmut region on Sunday. Has this widely publicized counter-offensive against Russia begun? Expert puzzle.

Kiev – Russia and Ukraine are currently engaged in fierce battles in eastern Ukraine. It revolves around the region of Bakhmut, which is now largely under Russian control. On Sunday, Ukraine reported hits in the city for the first time in months. At the same time, Russian troops are concentrating on defense and trying to secure the front of more than 800 km – with anti-tank trenches, anti-tank barriers and trenches. Has the announced Ukrainian counteroffensive already begun? Or has it not started yet?

Experts baffle over planned Ukrainian counteroffensive: Did it really start in Bakhmut?

Even military experts are no longer sure of Ukraine’s counterattack plan. “Ukraine launched local counterattacks in and around Bakhmut to push back the Russians and test defenses in the area,” said Lukas Weber, co-founder of the website. Struggler’s Wire. Something similar also happens at other points on the forehead. „It is difficult to say whether a planned counterattack has begun, but these actions indicate that Ukraine is planning something much larger.”

Ukrainian army snipers are stationed against Russian forces near Bakhmut. © Libkos/AP

The extreme length of the front in the Ukraine war makes it difficult to predict where Kiev will attack. Bakhmut is strategically insignificant, but a counterattack there „would be embarrassing for the Kremlin and the Wagner Group, which almost captured the city,” the researcher analyzes. A kind of symbolic character for the Ukrainians and their defense has been attributed to the city since the beginning of the war. Launching a full-scale offensive, they could try to send a signal by recapturing Bakhmut and „thwarting” the Moscow Kremlin.

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Only on Monday did the Ukrainian army announce that it had captured „more than a dozen positions” from the Russians east of Bakhmut. Also a think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicated Monday on geotagged photos, indicating that Ukrainian forces have recently made limited advances in the city itself. For Ukrainians, the winnings will be the first payment in months. On the other hand, Moscow demands dividends within the city, which is already largely controlled by Russian soldiers.

Counterattack in the Ukraine War: Kiev could isolate Russian soldiers in Bakhmut

“I am inclined to interpret that Ukraine is trying to keep Russian forces in Bakhmut to force them to stay at a certain point on the front,” says Ivan Cliches of the think tank International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia. At the same time, Ukraine could attack elsewhere. “Recently, panic has broken out in Russian military channels over alleged Ukrainian movements to positions in Russian-controlled areas,” says Klyszcz. But these sources are „not always reliable”.

Recording from Bashmut on April 24, 2023.
Recording from Pashmut on April 24, 2023. © IMAGO / RIA Novosti

The proposal regarding the goal of detaining the enemy in Bakhmut coincides with the recent statements of the spokesman for the Eastern Ukrainian Group of Armed Forces, Colonel Serhiy Shrivaty. According to the institute’s information, he reiterated that the main goal of the Ukrainian defense operation in the Bakhmut region is to deplete the Russian forces in that region.

Experts are at a loss: which areas are still suitable for the announced counterattack

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted in an interview BBC On May 11, the attack on Russia has not yet begun. According to him, some of the combat brigades that trained NATO countries are „ready”. But the army was still „missing some things”, including the armored vehicles that were arriving „in batches”. „With what we already have, we can go forward and, I think, be successful,” he told US Radio. But we will lose a lot of people. I think this is not acceptable. So we have to wait. We need more time.

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At the same time, Ukraine is unlikely to disclose actual information about the planned counterattack. General communications have been used to confuse the enemy since the beginning of the war.

Pierre Razeau of the French research institute FMES sees indications that preparations for at least a counterattack by the Ukrainians and Russians are well under way. „This is evidenced by the increasing number of acts of sabotage on Russian territory near the front and Russian attacks on Ukrainian arms and ammunition depots,” says Razo. Where Ukraine will attack remains a mystery. Some Western analysts predict an advance in the south or an attack on the occupied city of Severodonetsk in the east. Another possibility is Ukraine’s attempt to retake the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in the southeast. (NZ/AFP)

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NATO is about to send soldiers to Ukraine

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NATO is about to send soldiers to Ukraine

NATO is one a report According to the New York Times (NYT), it appears close to sending troops to Ukraine. These forces aim to train Ukrainian soldiers. According to the American newspaper, this step would drag the United States and Europe deeper into the conflict.

There is a shortage of soldiers in the Ukrainian army, and there appears to be no end in sight to the war. Russia invades the lands. The question is how long Ukraine can survive in the face of a union with about 3.5 times the population.

That’s why Ukrainian officials have reportedly asked the United States and NATO members to bring 150,000 new recruits to the front line to make them operational more quickly — and some Ukrainian forces are now scheduled to be trained in Germany, among other places.

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The White House had previously repeatedly confirmed that it would not deploy American forces, including trainers, on Ukrainian territory. This is a position that was repeated by a government official on Thursday. The newspaper wrote that in this case, America could be drawn into a deeper war.

America is against sending troops: but for how long?

The US government called on NATO allies not to send their forces. As part of NATO, the United States would be bound by NATO treaty to help defend against any attack on the trainers.

The New York Times wrote that the United States has not yet agreed to this. However, Gen. Charles Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, claimed on Thursday that NATO’s deployment of trainers seemed inevitable. “We will get there with time,” he added.

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The idea of ​​sending troops to Ukraine has been around for a long time. In Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron in particular has called for Europe to be more directly involved in the war in Ukraine. Just this week, the Estonian government also did not rule out sending troops to western Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Is NATO now sending troops?Bestemage/Imago

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis supported Emmanuel Macron’s position in one of the positions interview With the Guardian last week. “Our forces have already received training before the war in Ukraine,” he said, adding: “So it may be possible to return to this tradition.”

US forces have already trained Ukrainian forces in Poland, Germany and the United States. The United States had previously supported a NATO training program at Gavoriv in western Ukraine, but American forces withdrew from there early in the war.

“US officials now realize that current training by Ukrainian forces is inadequate, and that they need better and faster training to confront the expected Russian attack this summer,” the New York Times wrote.

Training courses abroad were not always successful, the Times wrote, citing as an example training on German soil in maneuver warfare, mine-clearing and other military tasks. However, it is said that such extensive training was rather difficult over a period of twelve weeks.

Ukrainian forces are scheduled to be trained in Germany

Now, large groups of new Ukrainian recruits could be sent to Germany and Poland for training purposes, the New York Times wrote, citing anonymous officials. Accordingly, the troops should be sent to the US Army training facilities in Grafenwoehr (Bavaria). There they will be taught „combined arms warfare.”

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The troops will then be sent approximately 1,600 kilometers to Lviv and then to Kiev to reach the front lines. She added that Germany, Britain and France are currently working to locate defense companies in Ukraine to help build and repair weapons systems near the combat zone.


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Gaza War: Israeli generals train for intifada against Netanyahu

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Gaza War: Israeli generals train for intifada against Netanyahu

HIt doesn’t look good in war when a country’s defense minister gives his prime minister an ultimatum. “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said in a press conference on Wednesday.

He added that Netanyahu must “announce that Israel will not take civilian control of the Gaza Strip, that Israel will not establish a military government in the Gaza Strip, and that an alternative administration to the Hamas administration in the Gaza Strip will be formed immediately.” Gallant, Netanyahu belongs to the Likud Party.

Galant said that „the day after Hamas” can only be achieved if Palestinian bodies take control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors, in reference to the Palestinian Authority and moderate Arab countries.

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According to the Minister of Defense, he has been urging the Prime Minister for months to present a scenario for the period after the military operation in Gaza. But because of his hesitation, Israel’s military successes are once again at stake: „Hesitation in making a decision ultimately means making a decision.”

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Six months after the mass killing of Israelis by the Hamas terrorist militia and the start of the subsequent Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, the tone between the country’s military leadership and Netanyahu’s government has become noticeably harsher. Gallant’s ultimatum was the strongest expression yet of growing opposition among the generals to the lack of leadership in the Jewish state’s political leadership.

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Northern Gaza Strip is out of control

Last weekend, the military leadership had already played a grudge against Netanyahu to the media — with the same tenor: If the prime minister does not soon present a plausible scenario for Israel’s war goals, what Israel has achieved so far risks being destroyed. Lost.

Evidence of the officers’ fears can be found in daily reports from the front. Although Israel announced months ago that it had militarily taken control of the northern Gaza Strip, new clashes with Hamas are still erupting there.

Is it perhaps because a reporter asked military spokesman Daniel Hagari earlier this week that Israel has not created a post-war order in the north? Hajari responded: There is no doubt that the presence of an alternative administration to the Hamas administration would increase the pressure on Hamas. But this is a question directed to the political leadership.”

DWO_AP_Gaza_170524

Source: OpenStreetMap; The world of infographics

In fact, the solution Gallant outlined in his press conference has been around since at least November of last year. At the time, American, Arab and European representatives, as well as members of Israeli security circles, told WELT AM SONNTAG that the Palestinian Authority would take over the administration of the Gaza Strip and an international protection force with the participation of Western-oriented forces. The Arab countries were in the process of preparation.

But Netanyahu still does not want to make any commitment. The Prime Minister continues to say what he does not want. Shortly after Gallant’s press conference, Netanyahu was released Video about SMS service. Netanyahu says, looking annoyed: “I am not ready to replace Fatehistan with Hamastan.”

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He refers to the secular Palestinian organization Fatah, the leading force in the Palestinian Authority, which lost power in Gaza to Hamas, but still bears responsibilities in the West Bank.

Israeli soldiers in Gaza in mid-May

Israeli soldiers in Gaza in mid-May

Source: Agence France-Presse

The body was established when Israel concluded the Oslo Peace Accords with Fatah leader Yasser Arafat in the early 1990s. Since then, she has been considered the legitimate representative of the Palestinians. “The Palestinian Authority supports terrorism, teaches terrorism, and finances terrorism,” Netanyahu responds to Gallant in the video, even though the Authority generally cooperates with Israel on security issues.

“The basic condition for handing over Gaza to another actor is the destruction of Hamas, without condition or condition.” This is how Netanyahu’s video ends after only 48 seconds, without the Prime Minister explaining who the „other perpetrator” is.

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Children play with toy guns in front of the house of a well-known militia leader in Nablus

The fact that Netanyahu avoided making a decision is down to his coalition partners. The majority of his government is very narrow and the Prime Minister relies on the parties of the settler movement and its leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.

But they are increasingly openly calling for Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip and the alleged voluntary migration of Palestinians from there. Ben Gvir, who holds the position of Minister of Public Security, confirmed this on Wednesday evening. “Tell them: Go home, go to your countries! This is ours now and forever!”

But neither Israel’s allies nor the Israeli people, for whom opinion polls show a clear majority against the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, support such a plan. The Israeli army had tried unsuccessfully to control the coastal strip for decades until its withdrawal in 2005. The army would not want to undertake such a bloody mission again.

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Putin visits Xi: Russia and China demand a buffer zone for nuclear powers

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Putin visits Xi: Russia and China demand a buffer zone for nuclear powers
outside Putin’s visit to Beijing

Russia and China demand a buffer zone for nuclear powers

“China is looking for partners among US adversaries.”

Putin has once again chosen Beijing for his first foreign trip during his new term. Xi Jinping supports the Russian president. “The Chinese buy a lot of raw materials from the Russians, and that should not be underestimated,” says Moscow correspondent Christoph Wanner.

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Vladimir Putin has once again chosen Beijing as his first foreign trip during his new term. Xi Jinping supports the Russian president. In a statement, Beijing and Moscow called for the establishment of some kind of sphere of influence for nuclear powers.

DrThis plan is likely to be aimed primarily at Ukraine’s accession to NATO: Russia and China spoke in a joint declaration in favor of creating a buffer zone for nuclear powers compared to other military alliances.

“Nuclear powers must maintain global strategic stability, respect the principle of equal and indivisible security, and not infringe on each other’s vital interests,” said the joint statement issued by Kremlin President Vladimir Putin and Chinese state and party leader Xi Jinping on Thursday. In particular, “the expansion of military alliances and coalitions and the creation of direct military bridgeheads on the borders of other nuclear powers” ​​should be avoided.

Russia also justified the war in Ukraine by NATO’s expansion eastward, and said it felt threatened. The buffer zone would in effect resemble a Russian sphere of influence, because Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO under this condition. Other former Soviet republics such as Georgia would also be affected by such a buffer zone.

Moscow and Beijing said on Wednesday that the political agreement was an option to resolve the conflict. “Both sides see that a political agreement is the right path to resolving the Ukrainian crisis,” Chinese state and party leader Xi Jinping said Thursday in Beijing during Russian President Putin’s state visit.

China and Russia object to US support for Taiwan

China, a nuclear power, also has a self-interest in securing its influence through a buffer zone. Beijing wants to reunite the island of Taiwan with the mainland, using military means if necessary. It also claims the Taiwan Strait, an international body of water, as its own.

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The two countries also accused the United States of transferring medium-range missiles to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. “It is about the United States of America creating a global air defense system and deploying its elements in different parts of the world, in the Universe, as well as expanding the potential of high-precision non-nuclear weapons in Europe and the southern part of the Pacific Ocean,” the statement said.

Putin arrived in China on Thursday for a two-day visit. At the beginning of the talks on Thursday, Xi congratulated his „old friend” on his fifth term in office and expressed confidence that Russia’s development would make „great progress” under his leadership.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the celebration of the 75th anniversary of Sino-Russian relations

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the celebration of the 75th anniversary of Sino-Russian relations

Source: AFP/Alexander Ryumin

Xi described the relations as conducive to peace. Sino-Russian relations have become stronger and have withstood “the test of the changing international landscape.” The two sides signed an agreement aimed at deepening the existing partnership between the two countries.

Putin, who began another term in office at the beginning of May, traveled with a delegation of senior politicians and business leaders. These include Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina. Putin is also accompanied by the heads of some of Russia’s most important companies, such as Igor Sechin of the oil company Rosneft, German Gref of Sberbank, and industrialist Oleg Deripaska. Prime Minister Li Qiang was among the Chinese hosts.

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