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Kiev is stepping up what came before – the summer offensive is entering the next, crucial phase

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Kiev is stepping up what came before – the summer offensive is entering the next, crucial phase

The war in Ukraine Kiev is stepping up what came before – the summer offensive is entering the next, crucial phase

Collapsed Ukrainian cars.

© Telegram

Kiev began to fight for Russian supply lines. At the same time, fierce battles are going on along the front. But the Russians are attacking now. They want to take the initiative away from the Ukrainians.

Anyone who thought the summer offensive had stopped would be mistaken. Both sides are intensifying their efforts despite the losses so far. For more than two weeks now, Ukraine has been launching attacks along the front line to break into the Russian positioning system. So far the results have been modest in terms of terrain gains. At several points, Kiev’s forces managed to penetrate some five to seven kilometers deep into Russian-held territory, capturing some small settlements in the process.

Kyiv soldiers suffered loss of life. The Russian fortifications, which had been ridiculed before, turned out to be resilient even in the area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe outpost. In particular, the Ukrainians suffered great losses in the Russian minefields. At the same time, he avenged Ukraine’s failure to gain air supremacy over the theater of operations. Kiev’s planes were frequently attacked by Russian interceptor missiles as they approached. The Russians themselves could intervene in the ground combat with helicopters. They fired on the Ukrainian columns, but managed to stay far enough away that they could not be detected by portable anti-missile missiles, called Manpads.

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gap in the information space

Ukraine’s strict policy of silence in the information sphere has retaliated. The Russians flooded social media with videos of their successes, including shooting down German Leopard tanks. While Kiev forces initially distributed hardly any videotapes.

Then an operational pause was announced, but in fact Kiev intensified its efforts. For the first time, strategically important bridges between Crimea and the mainland were attacked and also damaged. This is not the „Crimean Bridge” between Crimea and Russia, these are bridges over land communication with Ukraine in the direction of Chersonesos. Although a geographical „land bridge”, the area is criss-crossed by marshes and streams.

Hit Chonhar Bridge.

© Twitter/The Commons

Attack on supply lines

The strikes — presumably caused by Storm Shadow air-to-air missiles — have left damage in their wake, but must be repaired. But the Ukrainians will repeat these attacks and sooner or later they will destroy the important bridges that are necessary for supplies. In doing so, they are repeating a pattern that was successful in the Battle of Kherson. Having destroyed the bridges across the Dnieper, the Russians could no longer supply their forces on the other side. They had to abandon the area. The withdrawal of the Russians without a fight is now not expected. But this kind of battle with heavy use of artillery consumes a lot of materials that have to be constantly brought to the battlefield. The lack of supplies would affect the Russian defences.

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At the same time, Kiev is again showing more videos of its kamikaze drone strikes. They document Russian artillery and armored losses. Apparently, the Ukrainian forces have been able to use these drones frequently in the past few days. At the very beginning of the offensive, the Russians managed to significantly disable the Ukrainian devices. The Ukrainians are trying to deepen their incursions into Vremivka and Pjatychatky. At the same time they want to embrace Bashmut on the wings with a new effort.

Russian offensives in the north

It is difficult to say whether the escalation of fighting in Kiev was deliberate. Ukraine is also responding to Russian attacks on the northern front. There, as the Ukrainians drove the Russians northeast of Kharkiv last fall.

Now the Russians are advancing in the area east of the small towns of Liman and Seversk – Donetsk Oblast. Even in the north, fighting broke out near Kobyansk – Kharkiv Oblast. The Russians seem to have made gains in the process. However, they have so far only occupied forests and fields and no larger settlements. Their mechanized forces face the same difficulties as the Ukrainians – mines, drones, artillery.

With these limited attacks so far, the Russians are trying to take the pressure off the rest of the front. It seems that this was planned long in advance, because large Russian units are located in this area, where it was difficult to anticipate Ukrainian attacks. You can try to apply so much pressure that Kiev is forced to use reserves here. If the Russians were more successful, the momentum of the fight would pass to them. In order to avoid this, Kiev must be active in other areas.

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Fight hard with small moves

Thus, the summer offensive enters a new phase. This whole process is „annoying” because it proceeds differently than what is generally expected from an „attack”. Instead of mobile skirmishes and deep operations, we see bitter back and forth along the line of contact. A battle of attrition is raging along the front. A form of combat that has dominated the war since last fall. If one of the sides can no longer make up for the inevitable losses, the front on the ground will begin to move.

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Consequences of Russia's losses in the Ukraine war

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Consequences of Russia's losses in the Ukraine war
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This photo, published by state news agency Sputnik via AP, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting in the Kremlin. © Alliance photo / German Press Agency / Pol Sputnik Kremlin / AFP | Gabriel Grigorov

Vladimir Putin must accept resistance from his own ranks in the Ukraine war. Russian organizations help deserters and report an increase in their numbers.

Kiev/Moscow – “Get Lost” is the name of a Russian initiative that supports deserters from the Russian army. “We live in a world today where the Russian army brings nothing but death and destruction. Escaping from the army is the best way to help your country.” With these words, the organization addresses Russia's soldiers.

According to opposition media Novaya Gazeta More and more soldiers are doing it: while in January 2023, according to Get Lost, only 28 men were looking for support, the number has increased tenfold within a year. In January 2024, 284 soldiers arrived at the deserter contact point.

Organization helping those fleeing the Ukraine war: “We receive new inquiries every day”

“Idite Jeslom,” translated as “walking through the forest,” is the name of another Russian organization that takes care of deserters. Employee Ivan Shulyaev says they have already been in contact with more than 30,000 men. A quarter of the cases involved soldiers who were already at the front and wanted to escape the operation. Others contacted her after receiving the recall notice. In an interview with the magazine geography He said he did not initially expect the commitment to last so long.

“When we started with seven people, we thought we would do this for a few months, dealing with urgent cases. And that was it. But we receive new requests every day, and we cannot stop. These people do not want to have anything to do with Vladimir Putin and have nothing to do with the war.” In his estimation, the people were not interested in the war at first, but now they felt like hostages of their government and he now worked from abroad to strengthen the anti-war movement in Russia.

Putin's toughness towards those fleeing Russia – almost no protection in Germany according to ProAsyl

He says desertion and resistance have become an increasing problem for the Russian military in the Ukraine war Novaya Gazeta. According to another Russian portal. mediazonaDespite Vladimir Putin's tightening of regulations, desertions increased by 400 percent in one year.

A soldier who left with the help of another organization called Ivan says he still knows many soldiers who are happy even after more than two years on the front. But not everyone: “Escape from the front is very dangerous. People are fully aware that there are criminal consequences, but that does not stop them. Some pretend to be one of the dead or wounded, and some may harm themselves to escape.

Those fleeing Russia come to Armenia, Kazakhstan, Serbia and Turkey

Incidentally, only a small percentage of those who have fled come to the EU: people on the front will be helped to flee to Kazakhstan, Armenia or Kyrgyzstan, says Chulyaev of Idite Jeslom. high ProAsylum About 250,000 men have fled since the beginning of the war, often to Serbia or Türkiye. Some of them, for example from Kazakhstan, were deported to Russia. Nearly 3,500 men of military age were due to apply for asylum in Germany by August 2023.

While Germany was open to accepting Russian deserters in the first year of the Ukraine war, e.g Daily news I mentioned, apparently not much happened. Non-governmental organization Supported asylum Complain about it though Changes in decision-making practice As of 2023, there is still little protection for those fleeing Russia in Germany. In November 2023, Russian soldiers fled Crimea, wounding the deputy commander of their regiment. (cat)

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A military economist sees a strategic defeat for Ukraine for Putin

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A military economist sees a strategic defeat for Ukraine for Putin
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A military economist believes that time is running out for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine war. This is also why there are increasing calls for peace in the West.

COLOGNE – When we look at the war in Ukraine, people increasingly imagine that Vladimir Putin is just trying to buy time. Because the head of the Kremlin knows that Russia is significantly superior to its invaded neighbor.

That is why Germany's opponents of arms deliveries to Kiev often say that this will only prolong death and suffering indefinitely. The best that could happen to Ukraine is a negotiated peace that would also allow Moscow's ruler to save face.

Putin and the Ukrainian war: “Like Hitler, he must win in the short term”

Marcus MQ turns the tables. In the meeting with Cologne Rundschau The military economist confirms that the clock is actually ticking against Putin. The 71-year-old has long been personally determined to be a loser.

The Freiburg native compares World War II to another aggressive and inhumane dictator: Adolf Hitler. “Putin faces the same problem as Hitler,” says Cube. “He has to win in the short term, because in the long term he has no chance against the industrial potential of the West.” That is exactly why Putin is burning systems and people on a massive scale at the front.

Vladimir Putin has to endure this comparison often: Military economist Markus MQ also sees similarities between Adolf Hitler and the head of the Kremlin. © imago/montage

Military expert compares World War II: “Putin does it like Marshal Sokov”

Keough is convinced: “He wants to make a decision before the whole huge arms industry takes off in the entire Western world. About 80 years ago, something similar happened to the United States when Washington intervened to stop Hitler: “It took years to ramp it up.” The American defense industry. And it did not The maximum is reached only in 1945, at the end of the war.

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Putin also acted as the Soviet Union did at the time against Nazi Germany – even if those countries were initially fighting to liberate their territories. „What is Putin doing there?“The tsars did it, and then Marshal (Georgy) Zhukov in World War II,” recalls the lecturer at the Military Academy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich. “If 30,000 people fall in a wave of attacks, it means ‘it doesn’t matter to him, in the end’ The survivors were able to regain their new positions.

A person sits on a destroyed Russian tank
It did not survive the Russian attack on Ukraine: there are several destroyed tanks sent by the Kremlin to the Kharkiv region. © imago

Present The Kremlin's tactic of relying on the massesIt also has consequences for Kiev: “If Russia continues like this, Ukraine will have to mobilize at some point, even if it is difficult for democracy.” A million men.” Their time has not yet come: “At the moment, it is cheaper for them to rely on wear and tear.”

Military economist Q sees new tactics: „The Kremlin's parrots are shouting loudly again”

But not least because of the $1 billion US aid package approved in the House of Representatives after months of stalemate, the sun is starting to shine brighter again for Kiev. Additionally, despite the shift to a war economy, Russia has shown its limits, as Cube asserts: “Russian warfare is getting worse and worse technologically.”

The soldiers will be sent „with old T62 tanks without a turret and some in golf carts.” The reserve of about 3,000 tanks has been exhausted, and satellite images show that pipes in artillery camps are missing and systems have been dismantled.

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“I would say that Russia can definitely continue the war in 2024 and 2025,” Cube estimates. “But they are increasingly facing a time problem.” One indication of this for him is that “the Kremlin’s parrots are starting to shout loudly again, with the usual slogans: Negotiate peace, and Ukraine cannot win.” And so on. The AfD in particular could feel directed here.

Putin before the end? Expert Cube is betting heavily on Russia's defeat in the Ukraine war

Putin has already realized that Russia will be inferior to Ukraine and its allies: “That is why he is trying to sabotage the Western logistical base by transforming countries politically and playing the German emotional keyboard so that the Germans feel afraid.”

But Cube is certain: “If the Western logistical base continues to grow, Russia will not only win the war, but also lose it. With all the ensuing consequences for the internal organization in Russia.”

Young men playing with a destroyed tank in a settlement
Left behind: Young men enjoy this Russian tank in the Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv. © imago

Cube points out that this may mean the end of Putin's power, but it may be a disservice to his main supporters. By ending the war. Russia will decline economically and will have to unite internally again. “But the rule of the Siloviki, the group currently leading Russia, will continue,” the author explains the way to avoid impending unrest in the country.

The end of the Ukrainian war: According to Cube, Russia's strategic defeat has been certain since the fall of 2023

Cube is certain that the Ukraine war could end any day. It is in Putin's hands. However, there is reason to doubt whether the Kremlin's seemingly all-powerful head is really prepared to go down in history as the biggest loser who sent countless people to their deaths and, on top of that, divided two former sister states for more than a year. A decade for his own purposes.

According to Cube, Russia strategically lost the Ukraine war in the fall of 2023: “By then it had become clear that the rate of production could not keep up with the rate of attrition.” He had already started the war in the fall of 2023, and it had to stop, as if he simply didn't want to accept that time was against him. (mg)

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Ceasefire negotiations: US President Biden calls on mediators to put pressure on Hamas

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Ceasefire negotiations: US President Biden calls on mediators to put pressure on Hamas

The president is ours Joe Biden It called on Egypt and Qatar to put pressure on Hamas to release the hostages within the framework of negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The presidential office called on both countries to do everything in their power to secure the release of hostages held by the terrorist organization. This is the only obstacle to an immediate ceasefire. Qatar and Egypt, along with the United States of America, are considered important mediating countries in the conflict.

According to the information, Biden spoke by phone with the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi about the currently proposed proposal. Representatives of Egypt, Qatar and From Hamas It met in Cairo on Monday, and the Palestinian Islamic Organization has not yet responded to the proposal.

French news agencies and Reuters unanimously reported the delegation of the extremist Islamic organization Cairo I left for Doha, where Hamas's political office is located. Hamas must respond „as quickly as possible.”

Blinken and Cameron point to Israel's „generous” offer.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken appeared “optimistic” on Monday that Hamas would accept the ceasefire proposal Gaza strip He agrees to release the hostages. He said during a visit to Riyadh that the proposal was “very generous” from the Israeli side.

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British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that the proposal calls for a 40-day ceasefire. Hamas makes „a very generous offer of a 40-day ceasefire” and the release of „thousands of potential Palestinian prisoners” in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages. Israel It was submitted.

Negotiations regarding a ceasefire and the release of Hamas hostages have been continuing for months. As part of the only agreement reached so far between Israel and Hamas brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, about a hundred hostages were released in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners during a week-long ceasefire at the end of November.

The war in the Gaza Strip broke out as a result of the unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7 by the extremist Islamic movement Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the European Union and the United States. According to Israeli information, about 1,170 people were killed and about 250 others were taken hostage in the Gaza Strip. According to Israel, there are still 129 people in the Gaza Strip, and the army estimates that 34 of them have been killed.

Since then, Israel has been carrying out military operations in the Gaza Strip in response to the Hamas attack. According to the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health, which cannot be independently verified, more than 34,400 people have been killed.

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