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Consequences of Russia's losses in the Ukraine war

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Consequences of Russia's losses in the Ukraine war
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This photo, published by state news agency Sputnik via AP, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting in the Kremlin. © Alliance photo / German Press Agency / Pol Sputnik Kremlin / AFP | Gabriel Grigorov

Vladimir Putin must accept resistance from his own ranks in the Ukraine war. Russian organizations help deserters and report an increase in their numbers.

Kiev/Moscow – “Get Lost” is the name of a Russian initiative that supports deserters from the Russian army. “We live in a world today where the Russian army brings nothing but death and destruction. Escaping from the army is the best way to help your country.” With these words, the organization addresses Russia's soldiers.

According to opposition media Novaya Gazeta More and more soldiers are doing it: while in January 2023, according to Get Lost, only 28 men were looking for support, the number has increased tenfold within a year. In January 2024, 284 soldiers arrived at the deserter contact point.

Organization helping those fleeing the Ukraine war: “We receive new inquiries every day”

“Idite Jeslom,” translated as “walking through the forest,” is the name of another Russian organization that takes care of deserters. Employee Ivan Shulyaev says they have already been in contact with more than 30,000 men. A quarter of the cases involved soldiers who were already at the front and wanted to escape the operation. Others contacted her after receiving the recall notice. In an interview with the magazine geography He said he did not initially expect the commitment to last so long.

“When we started with seven people, we thought we would do this for a few months, dealing with urgent cases. And that was it. But we receive new requests every day, and we cannot stop. These people do not want to have anything to do with Vladimir Putin and have nothing to do with the war.” In his estimation, the people were not interested in the war at first, but now they felt like hostages of their government and he now worked from abroad to strengthen the anti-war movement in Russia.

Putin's toughness towards those fleeing Russia – almost no protection in Germany according to ProAsyl

He says desertion and resistance have become an increasing problem for the Russian military in the Ukraine war Novaya Gazeta. According to another Russian portal. mediazonaDespite Vladimir Putin's tightening of regulations, desertions increased by 400 percent in one year.

A soldier who left with the help of another organization called Ivan says he still knows many soldiers who are happy even after more than two years on the front. But not everyone: “Escape from the front is very dangerous. People are fully aware that there are criminal consequences, but that does not stop them. Some pretend to be one of the dead or wounded, and some may harm themselves to escape.

Those fleeing Russia come to Armenia, Kazakhstan, Serbia and Turkey

Incidentally, only a small percentage of those who have fled come to the EU: people on the front will be helped to flee to Kazakhstan, Armenia or Kyrgyzstan, says Chulyaev of Idite Jeslom. high ProAsylum About 250,000 men have fled since the beginning of the war, often to Serbia or Türkiye. Some of them, for example from Kazakhstan, were deported to Russia. Nearly 3,500 men of military age were due to apply for asylum in Germany by August 2023.

While Germany was open to accepting Russian deserters in the first year of the Ukraine war, e.g Daily news I mentioned, apparently not much happened. Non-governmental organization Supported asylum Complain about it though Changes in decision-making practice As of 2023, there is still little protection for those fleeing Russia in Germany. In November 2023, Russian soldiers fled Crimea, wounding the deputy commander of their regiment. (cat)

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Putin’s peace offer in Ukraine war is merely a 'revival of National Socialism’

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Putin’s peace offer in Ukraine war is merely a 'revival of National Socialism’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer for peace negotiations. He compared the Kremlin’s actions to the policies of Adolf Hitler in the Third Reich.

In an interview with the Italian news channel Sky TG24 Zelensky explained that the offer was an ultimatum that would not differ from previous ones. “What he is doing is reviving Nazism,” Zelensky said. Therefore, Putin wants Ukraine to give up the territories occupied by Russia, but at the same time he is interested in the unoccupied territories. According to Zelensky, Putin has no intention of ending the war. A frozen conflict will not be possible.

The Ukrainian head of state cited the partition and annexation of Czechoslovakia by Adolf Hitler in 1938 as an example of this approach. The German dictator at the time claimed that the Sudetenland was Nazi Germany’s last territorial demand – which ultimately turned out to be just that. to lie.

About Zelensky’s statements The Kyiv Independent website also reported.

Zelensky’s advisor: The proposals do not end the war in Ukraine

Mykhailo Podoliak, Zelensky’s advisor, commented In a post on X And also Putin’s demands. Russian claims on Ukraine would amount to Ukraine ceding its territory, giving up its sovereignty and leaving itself unprotected. He also stressed that the peace proposals are not new and that they will not end the war.

Giving up territory and not joining NATO: this is what Putin demands

On Friday afternoon, Putin made the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four regions and renunciation of NATO membership a condition for peace negotiations. Putin told Russian Foreign Ministry executives that once Kiev begins withdrawing from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions and formally abandons its plans to join NATO, „we will cease fire immediately, literally in the same minute, and start talks.” .

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Putin called on Ukraine to hand over these areas, which are partially occupied by the Russian army, to Russia. Moscow announced the annexation of Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions in September 2022. For Kiev, these conditions represent an effective demand for surrender. (With AFP)

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Ukraine War: Ukraine and NATO reject Putin’s ceasefire conditions

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Ukraine War: Ukraine and NATO reject Putin’s ceasefire conditions

the Ukraine He rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conditions for a ceasefire and peace negotiations, describing them as „eyewash.” “There is nothing new, no real peace proposals and no desire to end the fighting,” Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podlyak wrote on Channel X. One must stop taking Russia’s „proposals” seriously, which contradict common sense.

It was before Put it in He told Russian Foreign Ministry executives that his country would „immediately cease fire and begin talks” if Ukraine withdraws from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and renounces NATO membership. Ukraine should also fully hand over to Russia the areas partially occupied by the Russian army.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba described Putin’s statements as ridiculous. Kuleba said that Putin’s goal is to mislead the international community.

The United States government does not want peace through dictatorship

Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg He said at the conclusion of a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels that Putin’s conditions „are not a peace proposal” but „a proposal for more aggression and more occupation.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin accused Putin of wanting to „dictate” peace to Ukraine. Putin has occupied Ukrainian territory in violation of international law and has been unable to tell Ukraine what to do to reach a solution. Austin said: “We do not want the leader of a country to wake up one day and decide to erase his neighbor’s borders and annex his lands. This is not the world we all want to live in.”

Ukraine demands the complete withdrawal of Russian forces

Ukraine is conducting a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from its internationally recognized territory, including in 2014. Russia Annexation of Crimea as a condition for possible peace negotiations.

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Sahira Wagenknecht finds Putin’s demands „understandable”

On the other hand, BSW President Sarah Wagenknecht called for openness to Putin’s conditions. Wagenknecht said Ukraine and the West must „avoid the historical mistake of crudely dismissing signals from Moscow as unrealistic maximum demands.” Instead, Putin’s initiative should be treated “with due seriousness” and seen as a starting point for negotiations.

Wagenknecht said that Ukraine’s permanent non-nuclear status and renunciation of NATO membership are „understandable demands from Russia.” It is „in Europe’s existential interest to find a compromise now to avoid the risk of a major European war.” The G7 heads of state and government must respond quickly to this offer.

At the end of the week, representatives of more than 90 countries and organizations want to speak in Switzerland about the possibilities for achieving peace in Ukraine. Russia does not participate.

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Elections in Great Britain: Poll finds the UK Reform Party ahead of the Conservative Party for the first time

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Elections in Great Britain: Poll finds the UK Reform Party ahead of the Conservative Party for the first time

Three weeks before Great Britain’s general election, the right-wing populist Reform Party of Britain is said to have overtaken Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s conservative Conservative Party in a poll for the first time. In the institute’s published survey YouGov On behalf of the newspaper times The UK’s reform rate rose by two percentage points to 19 per cent, putting it in second place behind Labour.

According to the poll, Labor itself lost one percentage point, but is still clearly in the lead with 37 percent. President Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives remained unchanged at 18 percent, putting them in third place for the first time. Although the gap between the Conservatives and Reform in the UK is small, YouGov is already talking about a political 'earthquake’.

However, the impressive result of the poll by international opinion research institute YouGov rests on a relatively uncertain foundation. There is currently no other poll to confirm the result. YouGov surveys are based on invitations via email or in the YouGov app. There, users can answer questions on a wide range of topics. Users receive points that can be collected and redeemed for rewards.

About uncertainties in surveys

Representative surveys are always subject to errors. It can be assumed that the actual value is likely to be in the range of one to three percentage points above or below the finally declared measured values. We now show the corridor for this statistical error in our graphics of the election polls.

Results are always based on sample surveys. These services usually only cover certain parts of the population (such as people with a landline phone connection or Internet users). Some potential participants are passive and do not even want to be interviewed. Questions are sometimes misunderstood and not always answered truthfully. For example, also in response to previous surveys. However, in order to account for general opinion across all population groups, pollsters must compensate for missing measurements and suspected inaccuracies and reweight the available numbers. These (usually opaque) formulas vary between institutions and therefore lead to different data.

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Survey results are always snapshots. Nothing more can be drawn from this than an approximate tendency of opinion. Even if the statements and calculations at the time of the poll’s publication were close to reality, it is still unclear whether voters surveyed at that time would actually cast their ballots later or change their minds in a short time.

The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years and are under intense pressure before the elections. In opinion polls, the Conservatives have been significantly trailing the opposition Labor Party for several months.

The Reform Party UK is the new party led by Nigel Farage, who was previously leader of the Brexit Party. With its tough anti-immigrant stance, the UK Reform Party could steal more votes from the Conservatives. Farage said in a debate on Britain’s ITV that he actually sees his party as „the opposition to Labour”.

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