Ukraine’s counteroffensive depends on arms supplies, but Western partners are unlikely to keep pace with ammunition and weapons production.

Kyiv – Ukraine is still delaying the start of its planned major offensive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that they would wait until all the promised military vehicles arrived. „We need more time,” said the president. In addition to weapons, Ukraine may be waiting for more ammunition, military experts say. This may fail because of the Western allies, according to a report in an American newspaper Washington Post According to be able to keep up with production.

Ukraine has been waiting for weapons and ammunition from the West – but production could falter

Ammunition is likely the bottleneck at the moment „that Zelensky wants to fix before risking the lives of his soldiers,” Simon Schlegel, senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the International Crisis Group. euronews. „This is not only a military supply problem, it is also an industrial problem, a production problem,” the analyst continued.

It could become tight with supplies because the West did not adjust its industrial production to the war situation in time. As early as April last year it was clear that the Ukraine war was going to drag on for much longer and that investment should be made in the industry. But they have remained inactive, says Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, according to a report by Washington Post from Thursday.

Will the attack fail due to unwillingness to hand over weapons?

Richard Barrons, an ex-British military man, also criticized the fact that 13 months of war were allowed to pass before industry began to stimulate. „We haven’t seen the kind of industrial activity that would give Ukraine the tools it needs to fight on a large scale,” Barrons said.

„You don’t have to be a great military analyst to see that European countries making major investments in artillery production after 13 months of war are a little behind,” emphasized Michael Kaufman, director of the Russian Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses. The American newspaper.

Europe is not acting fast enough: „one to two years” for the investments to arrive

Until now, ammunition and weapons were usually taken from state stockpiles. „We’re now talking about a situation where we have to put money on the table because we have to invest in industrial capacity,” Watling continued. NATO officials said that in addition to NATO members the United States, the United Kingdom and Norway, the European Union and a NATO country have signed „major new contracts with the defense industry that will enable them to invest in increasing production capacities.” The narrator is Oana Lunescu.

Meanwhile, critics say many European governments have failed to move quickly enough to meet the growing need for weapons. The European Commission also had a file program worth 500 million euros He announced an increase in the production of artillery shells in Europe. This is an important step, but it is going very slowly, according to military experts. In addition, no new contracts were entered into in most cases. There is talk of a year or two until the investments can actually reach arms and ammunition production in Europe.

Russia has already managed to boost military production – Ukraine’s „critical weakness”

Before the start of the Ukraine war, the United States was producing 14,500 artillery shells per month, and the European Union’s production was roughly at a similar level. The report said that US production has already increased to 20,000 rounds per month since the beginning of the war, and investment has also been made in expanding capacities to reach 90,000 rounds per month. For comparison: last year, the Ukrainian army fired 180 thousand artillery shells per month, and according to expert Watling, the Ukrainian army currently uses about 90 thousand to 140 thousand rounds per month.

Russia itself says it increased its defense spending by 282% in January and February this year compared to the same period in 2021. Moscow now produces 2.5 million artillery shells annually, up from 1.7 million before the war. „Russia has the ability to mobilize its economy to support the armed forces and to control its own destiny in a way that Ukraine cannot,” said former General Barrons. Ukraine’s „principal weakness” is its „dependence on Western commodities and industry”.