How does the Ukraine war end? So far the score is completely open. However, the German government expects a Russian counterattack.

BERLIN/MOSCOW – Ukraine’s winter slowed down the war. Recently, the President’s forces Volodymyr Zelensky The Russian aggressors were constantly being pushed back – supported by Western weapons technology, supplied to the defenders by Germany or the United States, among others. When Ukraine war The endings remain uncertain. A new paper from the German government about New Zurich Times Reports are now indicating that a major Russian attack could be imminent in the coming year. Accordingly, the Department of Defense expects an attack in April 2023 in an analysis.

The war in Ukraine: Germany expects a Russian attack in April 2023

The war has been raging in Ukraine since February 2022. Since then, there have been many deaths and injuries on both sides. In the first months of the war, a large refugee movement developed: people fled their destroyed homes and sought protection from conflict in neighboring countries. Some experts have recently hypothesized that Ukrainian progress in the Ukraine War could slow by winter, but that the situation may ease in the medium term. Another warning Zelenskyy also from Russian attacks on holidays.

It remains unclear whether winter will finally lead to a relaxation in the Ukraine war. However, the NZ Citing a strategy paper by the German government that a strong counterattack by Russian forces could follow in the next year. This theoretical scenario is not new: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently spoke about the possibility and planned a possible attack before. Vladimir Putin forces for the first months of 2023. Other sources have also repeatedly talked about such a scenario, and the possibility of its occurrence Long war in Ukraine still possible.

Different options for the Russian offensive: Putin could work with Lukashenko

to me NZ The analysis of the German Ministry of Defense sees the possibility of a Russian counterattack in April 2023. There are two possible scenarios. Also to focus I mentioned about it. Accordingly, targeted missile attacks, also using drones, on critical infrastructure can be part of the war strategy.

Russian Attack in April 2023: First Scenario

According to reports, the British intelligence services do not consider it possible for Russia to launch a major attack in the Ukraine war in the near future, according to a scenario from the German Ministry of Defense. to focus Imagine an attack by Putin on Donbass. At the same time, Belarus will Alexander Lukashenko Putting several thousand soldiers on the border with Ukraine. Experts have long feared that Putin’s ally could meddle in the war. But so far, Lukashenko has backtracked.

However, if Belarusian forces were on the border with Ukraine, the defenders would have to separate to fend off a possible invasion from the north. However, Lukashenko will most likely not intervene directly in the war, but at most will deploy his army for threatening gestures – the domestic political pressure on the ruler seems too great. However, the aim of the first scenario of the Russian offensive is to bring Donbass under complete control.

Is Russia planning to launch an attack in the Ukraine war? Second scenario

While the first scenario sees Belarusian soldiers as a threat to the Ukrainians in the event of a Russian attack, Lukashenko’s soldiers could eventually turn out to have a decisive role in the war in a second scenario. However, this possibility is considered somewhat unlikely. Accordingly, Putin will want to conquer all of Ukraine in a war on two fronts. However, the Free Democratic Party of Germany has recently made it clear that Ukraine should continue to receive support. Because this was next to it Patriot system also other tanks semen.

In this scenario, Belarus would march towards Kyiv and Russian soldiers would attack across the Donbass River. If Putin’s army succeeds in advancing into western Ukraine, the forces could cut off Western supplies and force the surrender of the Ukrainian government. The strategy will require a general mobilization in Russia, as the Russian army has already been greatly weakened in the Ukraine war and will need more soldiers.

What is talking about an attack by Russia? Putin will reinforce the forces in Belarus

According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Belarus will likely play a crucial role in a potential Russian attack. Russia has long been creating conditions in northern Ukraine to foster a potential offensive. Belarus and Russia had already conducted joint military exercises in the run-up to the Ukraine war. Shortly thereafter, the Russian invasion of Ukraine took place.

A similar pattern is repeating itself now compared to then. Before the attack on Ukraine, Russia set up field hospitals in Belarus. So far, there are said to be indications that Putin’s military is once again setting up camps in Belarus. Although an invasion is considered unlikely, the developments can at least be seen as indications of a change in the Ukraine war.

Ukraine News: Will the end of the war come in the spring of 2023?

It does not matter whether the scenarios of the German Ministry of Defense have come true: after almost ten months, it is clear that the Ukraine war may be at a turning point. How the West and Ukraine will regard themselves in the coming weeks is crucial. As the paper says, according to Focus, it also shows that Putin, or Russia’s influence, is no longer a major threat to NATO can represent.