NATO countries have agreed on new plans to ward off possible Russian attacks on the alliance’s territory. The documents were accepted on Monday, a day before the start of the summit in Lithuania, in a written procedure, German news agency DPA and Reuters have learned from several diplomats. The decision will be confirmed again this Tuesday by the Heads of State and Government and then officially announced.

Defense Plans 4,000 pages

The Defense Plans, totaling more than 4,000 pages, describe in detail how sensitive sites in the coalition area should be protected by deterrence and defended in an emergency. For this purpose, the necessary military capabilities are identified. In addition to the Army, Air Force, and Navy, cyber and space capabilities are also included. „This is a direct result of Putin’s attack on Ukraine,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said recently in Brussels about working on the new plans. It is the first time in decades that there are new plans.

For decades, NATO saw no need for large-scale defense plans because it did not seem to designate Russia as an existential threat after the end of the Cold War. However, after the start of the war in Ukraine, there was pressure to revise all defense plans. However, an agreement has so far been blocked by Turkey due to the wording of geographical targets such as Cyprus.

Double duty for Germany

According to Pistorius, the plans task Germany with a double task. He explained that on the one hand, as it was during the Cold War, given its geographical location, it would be the logistical hub for the transportation of troops and materials. On the other hand, responsibility will be taken for the eastern flank and more deterrence and defense capacity will be provided there.

Just as the old Federal Republic lay exposed on the eastern side before 1989, Pistorius said, so the Baltic states are now. It is important that they now trust that allies will defend their freedom and security in an emergency.

Attacks by terrorist groups are also an issue

In addition to potential attacks by Russia, threats from terrorist groups are also the basis of the plans. The background is the experience of the al Qaeda terrorist network’s attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, as well as pressure from countries like Turkey, which has repeatedly had to deal with acts of terror by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The fact that NATO now has to make many changes is mainly due to the fact that the focus shifted from the Alliance’s defense to crisis management after the end of the Cold War. The main objective was to prepare well for operations in the Balkans or the Middle East.

New power structure

The plans will be implemented with the help of a new structure for the armed forces, among others. At last year’s NATO summit, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that 300,000 troops should be kept on alert in preparation for a possible NATO deployment. To date, the NSF Intervention Force has been primarily aimed at NATO’s rapid crisis operations. Member states currently provide about 40,000 troops for this purpose.

Last year, Germany had already agreed to provide a contingent – that’s about 15,000 soldiers – for NATO’s new force structure. In addition, about 65 aircraft and 20 ships were promised as well as support forces and other units with special missions.

More deterrence through presence

The new defense plans envisage that units will generally remain stationed in their home countries, but will be assigned to specific countries and regions – for example on NATO’s eastern flank. If necessary, the troops are transferred to their areas to ensure their protection there. In particularly vulnerable areas, further deterrence through a permanent presence is planned. That is why Germany also wants to permanently station about 4,000 soldiers in Lithuania.

NATO territory is divided into three regions

Geographically, the NATO region has been divided into three planning regions: The first region extends from the United States across the Atlantic Ocean to Iceland, Great Britain, and Norway. The second includes Europe north of the Alps with Germany, Poland, and Central Eastern Europe including the Baltic states. The third extends across the Mediterranean and the Balkans to the Black Sea regions with countries such as Romania and Bulgaria.

According to information from the alliance, the planning is primarily about defending against an attack of this magnitude on Ukraine. A number of areas have also been identified where Europe now needs to do more. According to the military, more heavy forces capable of withstanding fierce combat, more anti-aircraft systems, and more long-range artillery and missile systems are needed. It is also necessary to invest in information and data management systems as well as in logistics.

Targeting higher military spending

Among other things, to finance the goals, the military spending target will be raised at the summit meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Vilnius. Two percent of economic output should now be the minimum for military spending. Implementation of the plans is likely to take a few years for NATO representatives,

„We realized that we could indeed face an Article 5 situation again, where part of NATO’s territory is under direct attack,” a senior NATO official told dpa. And the Ukraine war showed that it can also be a large-scale offensive aimed at seizing part of NATO territory.

^ NATO, Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be deemed an attack against them all; They therefore agree that, in the event of such an armed attack, each of them, in the exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, shall render assistance to the party or parties attacked, […]

Selenskyj comes to Lithuania as a guest

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to be a guest at the meeting in Vilnius. So far there has been no consensus in the military coalition to invite Ukraine to join Zelensky. The United States and the federal government believe that this is premature while the war continues. As a sign of rapprochement, a new NATO-Ukraine Council will be created, which is scheduled to meet with Zelensky for the first time. In addition, more military and security commitments are expected from NATO countries.

Erdogan is paving the way for Sweden to join NATO

On the eve of the summit, Türkiye dropped its opposition to Sweden joining NATO. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to refer the Swedish request to parliament. Thus, Türkiye has completed a turning point. Not long ago, Erdogan put a new obstacle to Sweden’s approval of NATO membership by calling on his country to move closer to the European Union. Turkey has so far blocked Sweden from joining NATO because the government in Ankara believes the northern country is not cooperating enough in fighting Kurdish extremists. On Monday, Stoltenberg made one final attempt at mediation before the summit. Sweden has been militarily neutral for a long time. But after Russia attacked Ukraine, that changed and the country, like Finland, applied for NATO membership.

Stoltenberg did not say when the Turkish parliament would ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO. Erdogan promised to do this as soon as possible. The consent of all NATO countries is required for membership. Finland was able to join in April. However, Sweden’s request was rejected by Türkiye and Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief of staff had already announced on Thursday that his country would no longer close the road to Sweden.

Erdogan calls for the resumption of accession talks with the European Union

Erdogan surprisingly made a new request before leaving for Vilnius. And making the resumption of EU accession talks with Turkey a condition for its approval of Sweden’s membership in NATO. „First, we open the way for Turkey to join the European Union, and then we open the way for Sweden,” Erdogan said.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and the EU Commission reacted cautiously to the request and indicated that the two issues were unrelated. At the end of 2016, the European Union suspended accession negotiations with Turkey, which had begun in 2005. The background was the mass arrests of critics of the Turkish government after the failed military coup against President Erdogan in July 2016.

With information from the German news agency (DPA), Reuters and Agence France-Presse.