toAnd at night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sat in the cockpit of a two-seater F-16. The two heads of government were in good moods when they announced the delivery of a total of 19 Danish fighter jets to Ukraine a week ago, and Selinsky spoke of a „historic step”.
The Netherlands also wants to deliver F-16 fighter jets to Kiev soon, and 42 of them. This allows Ukraine to significantly modernize its air force. So far, this consists of 100 old Soviet-designed MiGs and Sukhois, which are already 40 and 50 years old. However, it is difficult to talk about „historic”. Because the use of F-16 combat aircraft is not a game-changer and will not bring about any groundbreaking changes in the Ukraine war.
Tune in: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selinskij and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in an F-16
Source: Image Alliance / abaca
Italian military expert Thomas C. Thener: „There is no doubt that this will enhance Ukraine’s defensive readiness.” “But the F-16 alone will not contribute to a fundamental change,” especially since it is not yet clear when the aircraft will be delivered. According to Denmark, the first F-16 should be delivered „at the end of the year”. Their use depends on pilot training, which can last up to a year, depending on the level of training.
In the context of the Ukraine war, there have already been discussions about the so-called changing the rules of the game several times. The reason for this was, in particular, the Himar precision missile system from the USA and the recently deployed British cruise missiles of the Storm Shadow type. Undoubtedly, these weapons systems play an important role, as do the upcoming F-16 fighter jets. But it is not the individual elements, but rather the interaction between branches of arms and forces that can bring about change.
“The war in Ukraine in particular, with a front line of more than 1,000 kilometers and sometimes great geographic and climatic differences, is a very complex system that depends on many factors,” says Thener, who specializes in weapons. So monocausal explanations won’t get you very far.
This has been particularly evident in the recent often harsh criticism of the Ukrainian counterattack. It was just too slow and a failure, according to users of somewhat related online platforms.
Even the reputable American media promoted the narrative of the failed attack in Ukraine. They quoted anonymous sources in US government circles and published figures on Ukraine’s losses, some of which were not well researched. The New York Times reported a 20 percent loss in Western weapons systems. Anyone who bothered to do the math quickly discovered that the amount was less than half that amount.
„This idea is primitive and false.”
„Either these sources had no idea how the war worked, or they were hiding something to justify themselves,” said Phillips B. O’Brien, historian and professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland. In one of his weekly analyzes of the Ukraine war, O’Brien also debunked one of the most stubborn clichés about modern warfare, often found in criticism of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
For example, Ukraine is accused of having gained „too little ground” with its advance. The historian wrote, „The notion that battles are only decided when forces meet on the battlefield is so primitive and false that I cannot believe people take it seriously.”
Ukraine’s offensive operations, which are nonlinear and sudden, cannot be measured solely in terms of its territorial gains. Rather, it is about consumption and consumption, as the Institute for the Study of War in Washington has repeatedly emphasized. „It is expected that the defending Russian forces will be significantly weakened, and the current counter-offensive operations are likely to create more favorable conditions for larger and significant operations.”
What is meant here is a large-scale war of action, which many already expected in the first days of the counterattack, but were disappointed. But war is not a Hollywood movie, and it operates according to more complex mechanisms.
Progress in small formations
An important focus of Ukrainian combat operations is also taking place behind the line of actual communication. Drones are destroying Russian command posts hundreds of kilometers behind the front lines. It is believed that the main bridges leading to occupied Crimea have been damaged or destroyed.
The Russian S-400 air defense system exploded in Crimea on Wednesday. Just a day later, a Ukrainian special commando unit blew up more Russian military facilities. Ukraine is fighting the Russian invasion at all levels, and it looks very effective.
German security expert and political consultant Nico Lange agrees: „We have to be very careful about advising Ukraine’s strategy and tactics.” „No one here has military experience in such framework conditions as in the south of Ukraine.”
Lang explains that after failed attempts to break through, Kiev turned to a very slow advance with small formations. „This is not a joint arms battle from our textbooks.
