After two days of fierce fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia in southern causality, the two sides agreed to a ceasefire, according to Armenian sources. Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan said on television in Yerevan that the ceasefire is in effect since eight in the evening local time. „A ceasefire agreement was reached with the participation of the international community,” he said. At first there was no confirmation from the Azerbaijani capital Baku.
And the Armenian Ministry of Defense announced, this evening, that the bombing has eased. According to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, more than 100 Armenians have been killed in the fighting since Tuesday night. He said in parliament that 50 square kilometers of Armenian land is in the hands of the enemy. The Azerbaijani side reported 54 dead in their armed forces.
Despite an apparently achieved ceasefire, the Armenian leadership came under pressure due to the Azerbaijani attacks. In the capital Yerevan, thousands of demonstrators demanded the resignation of Pashinyan on Wednesday evening. They accused him of surrendering to Baku.
The two former Soviet republics have already fought two wars over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The last armed conflict in the fall of 2020 lasted six weeks and ended in part with the success of Azerbaijan, which managed to retake parts of Nagorno-Karabakh.
After the cease-fire in 2020, Russia assumed the role of the guarantor power. It appears that some Russian peacekeepers have been withdrawn in recent months due to the Ukraine war. The seemingly lax control of peace agreements between the conflicting parties, which include control of the roads linking Karabakh with Armenian territory, and thus the provision of supplies and security to the Armenians still living in Nagorno-Karabakh, may be the cause of the outbreak. Who have fights.
Another reason may be that Ankara-backed Baku sensed an opportunity to conquer Nagorno-Karabakh as long as the hands of the Armenian garrison power Russia seemed tied by the Ukraine war. This may have met with Ankara’s indirect approval: Turkey wants to expand its influence in the South Caucasus and regards Turkish-speaking Azerbaijan as a „brotherly Muslim nation”. Turkey’s main objective is to open a trade route by land corridor from eastern Anatolia through Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan region to the heart of Azerbaijan and its coast on the Caspian Sea. From there Turkey would have a trade route to Central Asia and China.
Regional issues unresolved
Before the ceasefire announced by Yerevan, a spokesman for the Armenian Defense Ministry said, according to the German news agency (dpa): „The enemy has deployed unmanned combat aircraft in the direction of Jermuk.” The village of Weren Shoresha to the north was also attacked. Baku denied Yerevan’s allegations and accused the neighbor of carrying out attacks. According to the Azerbaijani version, the Armenian army bombed positions in the Kalbajar region of western Azerbaijan. Armenian forces also used howitzers. The data was not independently validated initially.
The fighting of the past few days shows how quickly the situation can escalate and a new third war could break out in the South Caucasus. In an interview with Reuters, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruer Hovhannisyan warned of another armed conflict. He called on the major powers active in the region to pay more attention to the Caucasus region.
The First South Caucasian War between the republics of the former Soviet Union erupted from 1992 to 1994. It ended with the Armenian occupation of the mountainous Karabakh region, to which international law belongs to Azerbaijan. Armenia claims the area, which dates back to its medieval empire and also cites a large number of Armenians in Karabakh.
After the First South Caucasian War, the Armenians of Karabakh declared the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic there. This is not recognized under international law. In the second war, Azerbaijan was able to restore the plains around Karabakh and parts of the mountainous region itself. However, regional issues have not been definitively clarified.