Things are still not going well for Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk without Russian fighters gaining ground. People entrenched at a chemical plant could not be saved, but an ultimatum to the soldiers of Ukraine was wasted. Heavy weapons may help. We announced Great Britain and the USA, but there is a damper from Germany. For the Federal Republic, there is also less gas than for Russia. A glimpse into the 112th day of the war.
The alarm in Seyerodonetsk expires without reaction
According to the Ukrainian authorities, the defense of Sevgirodontsk will continue. Luhansk region governor Serhiy Haji said the soldiers withstood attacks from three sides. „You are preventing the enemy from advancing on Lysychansk.” According to estimates by British intelligence services, the Russians took control of most of the Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk after more than a month of bitter fighting. In addition, British intelligence information supports the Ukrainian authorities’ account that hundreds of civilians are keeping Ukrainian soldiers in the caches of the Azot chemical plant in Severodonetsk. Pro-Russian separatists from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic accuse Ukraine of disrupting a humanitarian corridor from the Azot chemical plant in Severodonetsk. Allegedly, civilians could have left the factory all day. On the other hand, the Ukrainian soldiers in the industrial complex were given an ultimatum to lay down their arms by morning, Which they didn’t do.
American think tank: Donetsk may be annexed by September
Meanwhile, according to the American think tank Study for the Institute of War, the Russian authorities may be accelerating their plans to annex occupied territories in Ukraine. Adviser to the Mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushenko sees indications of plans by the Russian authorities to annex the occupied Donetsk region as early as 1 September: Andriyushenko stated that the administrative tasks from the separatist authorities in Donetsk had been completely transferred to Russian officials. In addition, Russian education authorities will already designate Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Cherson as regions of Russia. Despite the plans, many children from their homes in the occupied territories are said to have been brought to Russia. This came by the Commission of Inquiry of the United Nations Human Rights Council after receiving information about the disappearance of children in care homes.
Russia detains former US soldiers
Far from Sievjerodonetsk, it is said that there were more successes for the Russian army. According to the Moscow Defense Ministry, an arms depot in the Lviv region of western Ukraine was destroyed. She added that the weapons handed over by NATO countries were located there. Some of them were ammunition for the American M777 howitzer. Russian fighters also managed to arrest two former US soldiers who fought on the side of Ukraine. Alexander Druik, 39, and Andy Hoen, 27, served as volunteers in a regular unit of the Ukrainian Army. Like Britons Aiden Aslin and Sean Penner, they could face the death penalty as „mercenaries”.
It seems that the recruitment process in Russia is slow
Despite the military progress, the Russian leadership appears to be having difficulty recruiting more soldiers. The US think tank Institute for the Study of War has reported possible attempts by the Russian military leadership to increase the number of qualified recruits. Russian military blogger Yuri Kotinok claimed that the Russian authorities are preparing to raise the minimum age for military service from 40 to 49. In addition, the current requirements for previous military service for service in armored and mechanized infantry units will be dropped.
Western countries agree to many weapons
What could also slow down the current successes of Russian forces are arms shipments from Western countries. There have been recent announcements. Initially it was said from Germany that only three will be delivered instead of the four previously discussed MARS II missile launchers. Among other things, there will not be enough ammunition. German missile launchers from the German armed forces’ inventory should be delivered to Ukraine in August or September. However, Great Britain promised quick delivery of multiple rocket launcherswithout giving a specific number. Harpoon anti-ship missiles can also be delivered. Denmark and the Netherlands have already promised to do so. And in the evening, US President Joe Biden followed suit and promised to provide Ukraine with weapons worth 1 billion dollars (960 million euros). In addition, there should be $225 million in humanitarian aid.
Ambassador Melnik has two demands from Schulz
According to Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, only about 10 percent of arms shipments announced so far have arrived in Ukraine. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrei Melnik, also renewed his criticism of the lack of arms shipments on RTL/NTV before Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Kyiv. In addition to conferring the status of Ukrainian candidate for EU membership, Schulz is expected to „jump above the shadow of German indecision on the subject of heavy weapons and significantly support Ukraine with all available means from the stocks of the German army and the arms industry.”
Ukraine can’t reap the crops
What will also help Ukraine is shipping its grain stocks. This was not possible long ago due to the Russian blockade of the Black Sea, so that the granaries were full. This prevents new grains from being stored. However, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, about 2.4 million hectares of winter grain could not be harvested due to the fighting. The grain is worth about $1.435 billion. The agricultural sector has already suffered an estimated loss of $4.292 billion due to the Russian invasion.
The Russian economy is more resilient than expected
On the other hand, the Russian economy does not appear to be so affected by the sanctions as it has sometimes been assumed. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said in Moscow that it is very likely that „the strength of the decline will be a little less than we thought”. In addition, inflation could be lower than expected. „We can say that inflation will be much lower than the estimates,” the minister added.
Russia sends less gas to Germany
It also appears that the gas supply to Germany could once again be throttled. As of Thursday morning, only a maximum of 67 million cubic meters will be pumped through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline per day, a third less, Gazprom announced. The Russian state company once again justified this step by delaying repair work by Siemens. Therefore, another gas pressure system had to be shut down. On Tuesday, Gazprom announced that it would reduce the maximum delivery volume to initially 100 million cubic meters of gas per day. This corresponds to about 60 percent of the pre-planned daily volume of 167 million cubic meters of gas. The Federal Network Agency rejected Gazprom’s statements that the delay in repairing the gas compressor unit was the reason for the low gas delivery volumes.
Israel and Egypt can intervene
It may be a way to get rid of dependence on Russian gas Contract between the European Union, Israel and EgyptThere was a declaration of intent. The Israeli Energy Ministry said the deal would allow a „significant” export of Israeli gas to Europe for the first time. Officials believe that Israeli gas will be piped to gas liquefaction facilities in Egypt and then shipped to Europe. Von der Leyen said the agreement would also boost regional cooperation. The European Union is also planning an agreement with Egypt on hydrogen production.
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