The Kremlin manipulates successfully
ISW: Russia will lose if the West uses resources

March 27, 2024 at 12:37 pm

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Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War clearly count the Western allies in the analysis. It is said that Russia could never win the war if the West „rose up.” But too often people fall for the Kremlin's only winning strategy.

Military experts Natalia Bugayova, Frederick Kagan and Katerina Stepanenko of the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russia is unable to win in Ukraine – provided the West exploits its opportunities. In a recent analysis, the researchers said: “Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West — and would likely lose — if the West pooled its resources.”

The GDP of NATO countries, non-NATO members, the European Union, and Asian allies will reach more than 63 trillion US dollars, while Russia's GDP will reach only 1.9 trillion dollars. Former Russian President Medvedev made a similar statement – and given his power, he threatened a nuclear strike in the war with the West. Russia's allies Iran, North Korea and China will do so, according to the newspaper analysis From ISW it contributes „only a little in financial support”. “China supports Russia, but it does not mobilize for Russia.”

“Manipulation is the only strategy to win.”

Institute for the Study of War researchers criticize what they believe are often successful information campaigns from Moscow. The American think tank said: “The most important Russian strategy is to make us see the world the way the Kremlin wants to see it.” This includes the claim that the war could not be won because of Russian dominance. It aims to marginalize the United States so that Russia can fight Ukraine in isolation.

Such an “infiltration” may arise if Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections and ends US support. House Republicans are currently blocking aid totaling about $60 billion. This support is seen as essential for Ukraine's continued defense capability.

According to ISW, manipulations from Moscow sometimes successfully target “the full spectrum of those who make or report decisions,” namely politicians and the media. According to the Institute for the Study of War, even Vladimir Putin's lies that Ukraine's entry into NATO poses a danger to Russia, or that Ukraine is not a real state, or that Russia has the right to do what it wants in certain spheres of influence, were successful.

“Manipulating perceptions is one of the Kremlin’s core capabilities, which is being unleashed with full force on Western public opinion, because this is the only Kremlin strategy that can win in Ukraine. This is not a challenge that most societies can meet.” It will be easier for the United States to overcome these manipulations than for Russia to close the enormous gap between its war aims and its actual capabilities.

ISW: Use of nuclear weapons 'unlikely'

Moscow primarily wants to delay US military aid. For this reason, it reinforces narratives about the dangers of nuclear proliferation – for example, through nuclear blackmail and “other ambiguous threats.” Information campaigns in the fall of 2022 were aimed at delaying the West's supply of tanks and other important capabilities to Ukraine – with ensuing consequences, according to military experts.

“The failure of the United States to proactively support Ukraine’s initiative after two successive, successful counterattacks in the fall of 2022 contributed to Ukraine’s lost opportunity to launch a third counterattack in the winter.” This enabled Russia to build up its defences.

According to the World War II Institute, the West's reluctance to supply Ukraine with longer-range weapons – such as German Taurus missiles – is due to „a Kremlin-fueled fear that Ukraine might use these systems to attack targets in Russia and thus 'provoke the fury' of an unspecified escalation.” In Germany, Chancellor Schulz repeatedly warned against getting involved in the war if the Taurus were delivered.

Scientists believe that it is „unlikely” that Putin would actually use nuclear weapons „solely to respond with Western missiles to Ukrainian strikes in Russia.” He also did not do so during Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory. However, the threat of nuclear escalation will remain at the core of Russian perception manipulation, write Natalia Bugayova, Frederick Kagan, and Katerina Stepanenko.

„The West behaves like a mouse”

According to military experts, failure in Ukraine would be disastrous for the West. “A victorious Russia represents a faster path to war between Russia and NATO than a Ukraine victory. Ultimately, a Russia victory in Ukraine would make a compelling case for the effectiveness of nuclear blackmail.

The Institute for the Study of War believes that the West has an advantage in war, but the West must decide to exploit this advantage. He is „a giant who sometimes acts like a mouse towards Russia. All he has to do is stand up.” Although the Kremlin has not mobilized all its resources, it has mobilized a significant portion of them – and more than the West for Ukraine.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the occupation of 18% of Ukrainian territory cost Russia “a heavy price.” Putin will continue to mobilize, but Russia's capabilities are neither without limits nor without costs.

Finally, military experts call on the West to provide sufficient immediate military aid to Ukraine, to help Kiev expand the Ukrainian defense industry and to make attacks on military targets in Russia possible.