As of: 07/25/2023 4:23 PM
The conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been going on for more than 30 years. Azerbaijan is now pushing for a final solution. It could lead to the expulsion of the Armenians there.
Peace for the people and stability in the region – A peace agreement later this year aims to end the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, at the center of which is the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Mostly inhabited by Armenians, it is located on the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.
But what the Armenians are experiencing in Nagorno-Karabakh is nothing but peace. They are even afraid of staying there. The supply situation has deteriorated significantly since mid-December because Azerbaijan is increasingly restricting transport through the Lachin Pass, the only access route from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.
At the end of April, President Ilham Aliyev set up a border checkpoint there – which Azerbaijan has the right to do, as he is not tired of emphasizing. But he uses it to finally cut off the connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Electricity and gas outages from Armenia for several months.
Few merchandise arrive
Only Russian troops and the International Red Cross were allowed to transport essential goods and patients, but Azerbaijan is temporarily blocking this – most recently with the accusation that „inhumane goods” were hidden in Red Cross vehicles. It is said that it was mobile phones, cigarettes and fuel.
Residents have been reporting empty shelves in markets for weeks. It was no longer possible to transport bread, fruits and vegetables between the villages and the capital, Stepanakert, due to the lack of petrol. In addition, Azerbaijani forces have repeatedly attacked farmers who wanted to plow their fields, residents complain.
It is clear to them: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev wants to starve them out and expel them. The long-term goal is complete „ethnic cleansing,” fears its president, Arajik Harutgonian.
„Peacekeepers”that does not bring peace
Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh still have armed forces. Azerbaijan describes them as „illegally armed groups” and „terrorists”, or as units of Armenia’s armed forces secretly supplied from there. However, the Armenian side insists that these are independent self-defense forces for Nagorno-Karabakh.
And the Russian „peacekeepers” should have disarmed themselves a long time ago, according to Aliyev’s accusation against the government in Moscow. Their presence is part of the November 2020 ceasefire agreement that ended a six-week war that saw Azerbaijan recover much of the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenia occupied in the early 1990s.
The Russian forces are supposed to protect the Armenians, but the Azerbaijani forces advanced several times without hindrance. Until the blockade of the Lachin Pass, Russia responded only to the verbal demands of the government in Baku.
On the other hand, it is questionable what Russian forces can do against the modern armed forces of Azerbaijan, since most of the forces are tied up in Ukraine. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is more important to Russia from an economic and strategic security point of view than its de facto ally Armenia.
The situation is „obviously unacceptable”
Obviously, international attention contributes to the fact that Aliyev is not currently trying to impose his goals militarily, as he did in 2020. Several countries intensified their diplomatic pressure after Azerbaijani forces invaded and occupied the territory of Armenia itself last September. The United States entered into mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the level of foreign ministers.
The European Union sent an observation mission. They are unarmed and are only allowed to patrol within Armenia. But it will still be able to report on massive movements of Azerbaijani forces. The European Union mediates between the two countries.
On July 15, Aliyev and the Prime Minister of Armenia met for the sixth time at the invitation of EU Council President Charles Michel. Michel then explained that the situation was „manifestly unsustainable” and that the Lachine Pass must be opened.
However, Michel with another statement, albeit carefully formulated, caused a great deal of mistrust on the Armenian side: he „noted” that Azerbaijan is ready to deliver humanitarian goods to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Many Armenians saw this as a license for Aliyev to completely block the road to Armenia. Then the European Union emphasized that the supply through the Azerbaijani side should be understood only as complementary. The example shows how tense the mood was among the Armenians.
Warning of a new war
The government in Baku has repeatedly called on the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh for direct talks, but at the same time demands their dissolution and threatens arrests. Armenia is committed to international mediation between the two sides, internationally guaranteed rights and security for the population. The President of the Council of the European Union also spoke about it, but without saying who should impose these guarantees.
Russia has lost its credibility in the eyes of both sides of the conflict, even if it continues to act as a mediator between the two sides alongside the European Union and the United States of America. Azerbaijan, now backed by its ally Turkey, demands the withdrawal of Russian „peacekeepers” in 2025. This is what the ceasefire agreement says. But Russia is showing no willingness to allow international involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh.
While negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are at least continuing, the situation on the ground is deteriorating every day. Now Pashinyan spoke of „ghetto” and „politics of ethnic cleansing”. Unrest is increasing among the people of Armenia. Parallel protests are being planned there and in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Prime Minister fears the outbreak of a new war that reflects the prevailing sentiments in the country. Armenia is only slowly recovering from the severe defeat in the 2020 war. Despite the planned arms purchases from India, for example, it will not be able to keep up with Azerbaijan for the foreseeable future. However, if a solution acceptable to the Armenians is not found, years of guerrilla warfare threaten, which the Armenian leadership will not be able to control.
However, the prospect of massive instability in the region is not in the interest of Azerbaijan, which is dependent on foreign investment. This is why international pressure can make a difference.