Putin’s relationship with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is complex. Before the war in Ukraine began, both men appeared on hunting vacations together in the Russian taiga.

Those days are long gone. Shoigu, like Vladimir Putin, is one of the key figures in the aggressive war against Ukraine. He heads the Russian Ministry of Defense and is therefore responsible for the conduct of the war.

In the past, he had to face frequent criticism for his actions. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group at the time, regularly accused Shoigu of not taking tough enough measures.

Putin is said to have given Shoigu an ultimatum

Now, weeks after Prigozhin’s presumed death, Putin appears to hold that view as well. The American research center „Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) recently published an analysis indicating this.

In Ukraine update as of September 24 There is talk of an ultimatum that the Kremlin head is said to have given Shoigu. ISW relies on an insider. He says: The Minister of Defense must improve the situation in the Ukrainian war from Russia’s point of view by the beginning of October.

According to the source, it is not just about making progress on the front lines. Ukrainian counterattacks must be stopped and Russian forces must be persuaded to launch an attack on a major city.

“If the insider’s claim is true, the Russian military command could order relentless counterattacks,” the Institute for the Study of War analysts wrote. Even if it involves huge costs for your army.

Experts criticize ISW report

Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in Berlin, criticizes the ISW’s analysis. “Often the authors just repeat what Russian military bloggers said or wrote,” he said in an interview with FOCUS online.

“Their core competency is not political, but military.” The Institute for War Studies report also raises some questions for Gerhard Mangot of the University of Innsbruck. It is not clear when Putin should have given this ultimatum, he told FOCUS online.

“A few weeks ago or just September 24 when the research center released the information? In the latter case, it could not be serious, because how could Shoigu significantly improve the situation in the war within a week or two?

But also when Manjot criticizes ISW analysis. The political scientist, who focuses on Russian regime theory, believes that „it is plausible that Putin has ordered a change in the conduct of the war.”

Putin does not have enough room to be more brutal

After all, Ukraine has had many successes in the past. On the front line near Robottain and Werbo, the army recorded terrain gains. Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnowski said in an interview with CNN that the goal is to advance to Tokmak.

Tokmak is located about 20 kilometers behind the front and has been under Russian occupation since the beginning of the war. But the summer offensive consists of several pieces of the puzzle.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces also operate in the rear area. Among other things, they are trying to destroy Russian logistics. “This weakens the supply of Russian forces on the front line,” says political scientist Manjot.

If Putin puts real pressure on Shoigu – as ISW suspects – there may be different reasons. For example, “the Russian defense line in southern Ukraine is more surmountable than the Russian leadership assumed,” Manjot says.

“I don’t think Russia will launch suicide attacks.”

The “relentless counterattacks” mentioned in the ISW report are still considered unlikely.

“I do not think that the Russian army will launch suicide attacks just to repel Ukrainian forces on the front line with significant losses of material and personnel,” says the political scientist. He even believes that Russia will strengthen existing defense lines.

An ultimatum would probably have little impact on the brutality of war. After all, Russia has already committed many war crimes. For example in Bucha, where, according to Ukrainian information, 458 bodies had been found by August 2022. Many of the dead are said to have shown signs of torture.

“Russia is left with few options for waging a brutal war other than using tactical nuclear weapons. But this scenario is extremely unlikely, although a residual risk remains,” Mangot says.

“In my opinion, Putin will not rethink his strategy until mid-2025 at the earliest.”

In his opinion, Shoigu cannot do anything to implement Putin’s alleged guidelines. At least not in the short term.

The level of training of Russian soldiers cannot be improved in a short period of time, nor can the delivery of effective weapons and ammunition be accelerated.

One thing is certain: the war continues, and there is no end in sight. Military expert Gressel points out that extremist forces are calling for comprehensive mobilization to expand the Russian army. However, representatives of this view ignore the fact that “the army lacks the structures necessary to train and arm millions of men at the same time.”

Ultimately, Gressel does not believe Putin will change his strategy. “Shoigu only recently talked about continuing the war until 2025,” he says.

“In my opinion, mid-2025 is the earliest point at which Putin can reconsider his war strategy and goals.” Gressel believes that until then, the war will be waged using all possible means.