After twenty years in power, Azerbaijani President Aliyev is running for re-election. With the restoration of historic Nagorno-Karabakh behind him, victory must be assured. However, it is based on aggression.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev faces six opposition candidates. But they did not emerge as rivals in the election campaign. Instead of criticizing him or at least discussing alternative concepts, they praised the ruler, who has been in power for 20 years, in television programs in which Aliyev himself did not appear. Most of them belong to pro-government parties in parliament.

The actual opposition parties refused to nominate candidates for the presidential elections. They did not want to participate in the democratic stage. In recent years, Aliyev's leadership has brought all spheres of society under its control, for example by creating and staffing civil society organizations. In addition, since 2022, the government has tightened conditions for parties and media, which are only allowed to operate after state registration.

A wave of arrests

Early in the summer of 2023, internationally known economist and government critic Gobad Ebadoğlu was imprisoned during a visit to Azerbaijan. The visiting professor at the London School of Economics had announced his desire to work with institutions in the United States of America, Great Britain, and the European Union to secure the wealth resulting from corruption.

A wave of arrests in the media sector began in November. At least 13 media professionals have been imprisoned since then. The Abzas media platform was the most affected, as it published repeated reports on corruption, including corruption in the presidential family.

When Aliyev announced on December 7 that he would advance the presidential election by more than a year to February 7, many media professionals and government critics expected a visit from the police. In fact, there were more arrests. Prisoners' lawyers and relatives speak of ill-treatment and even torture in prisons.

Aliyev celebrates himself as the winner

It is possible that Aliyev will obtain a fifth term in office without retaliation. In September, he achieved the goal that has shaped the country's identity for the past 30 years: reoccupying the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding regions that had been under Armenian control since the war in the early 1990s.

Aliyev, with the support of Turkey, Israel and Russia, modernized Azerbaijan's armed forces, enabling them to seize Nagorno-Karabakh. The mountainous region has always been considered impregnable. After the latest military operation, about 100,000 Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh by the end of September. Aliyev raised the Azerbaijani flag there and paraded his armed forces there.

Aggression at home and abroad

Now Aliyev still needs a peace agreement with Armenia in which his military victories are recorded in writing. As if to emphasize this, he did not just announce the presidential elections on December 7th. On that day, Azerbaijan and Armenia also issued a joint statement for the first time. They committed to normalizing their relations and a prisoner exchange was announced and implemented. Armenia announced in favor of Azerbaijan that it will withdraw from its bid to host the UN climate conference COP29. It will now be held in Baku in November.

But once the new year and the official election campaign arrived, Aliyev changed course. He once again sharpened his tone towards Armenia. In a television interview with pro-government channels, he spoke about its capital, Yerevan, as historically Azerbaijani territory. He again called for the opening of the „Zangesor Corridor” to the Nakhichevan enclave, which would pass through Armenian territory without Armenia exercising control over it. A few weeks ago, Aliyev announced an alternative connection through Iran to the south. In Armenia, this raised fears of a new invasion by Azerbaijani forces as happened in September 2022.

It's about power

Of Aliyev’s motives, historian Altay Goyushov of the Baku Research Institute wrote: “To keep power in the hands of the ruling family.”

In recent years, government critics have also said that if Nagorno-Karabakh again comes under Azerbaijan's control and full sovereignty is restored, democracy will return to Azerbaijan.

The administrative apparatus was reformed and corruption at lower levels was reduced. But elite corruption remains a problem, and revenues flow into prestigious estates, while the general population must adapt to rising prices and falling incomes. In addition, despite all the reform announcements, the Caspian nation remains a country dependent on oil and gas prices.

The course Aliyev will take after the elections depends largely on international pressure. This is shown by his actions in the past few months. The emerging international controversy over potential sanctions and lack of cooperation and investment caused aggressive responses from his government. The need for international investment in the energy sector and development of the “liberated areas” is great. This is why Aliyev may become more moderate again after the elections – purely for tactical reasons.