Wagner and the Kremlin conflict: Putin bans Prigozhin’s recruitment

The 61-year-old, also known as „Putin’s cook”, recruited prison inmates for months to serve in the Ukraine war and promised them amnesty for their return to Russia if they survived the fighting in Ukraine. In early February, however, Prigozhin announced that prison recruitment had ended—apparently under pressure from the Ministry of Defense in Moscow. In the absence of new prisoners as recruits, the Russian mercenary force may encounter difficulties, according to British estimates.

On Monday, March 13, the Ministry of Defense in London indicated that Moscow had denied the head of the Wagner Company the opportunity to recruit mercenaries in prisons. Half of the prisoners that were used fell victim to the heavy fighting. A nationwide recruitment drive does not make up for the losses. Only on Friday (March 10) Prigozhin announced the opening of 58 employment centers in 42 Russian cities. „If the ban continues, Prigozhin will likely have to reduce the scope or intensity of Wagner’s operations in Ukraine,” a British official said. This seems to be just the tip of the iceberg.

Escalation of the Putin-Prigozhin conflict: „Wagner forces eliminated” in Bakhmut

According to the institute, the Russian Ministry of Defense „is currently prioritizing the elimination of Wagner’s forces on the battlefields of Bakhmut.” Thus, the Wagner-Kremlin conflict could slow the pace of progress in the region.

The American think tank points to a „relentless smear campaign” by Prigozhin, launched in May 2022, against high-ranking figures in the Russian military as the root of the conflict. For example, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Now American experts suspect an attempt by the military leadership to „take revenge on Prigozhin.”

In the past, Prigozhin has repeatedly claimed decisive combat successes in the Ukraine War. He makes no secret of his opinion that his fighters are far superior to the official Russian army – and he confronts the Russian establishment again and again. Recently, Wagner’s boss has publicly criticized Putin. The Kremlin cut communication lines: Putin no longer answers the phone.

Did Wagner’s boss Briogoshin overestimate Putin’s confidence?

The ISW suspects that Prigozhin overestimated „Putin’s confidence in Wagner’s forces”. He tried to replace the military and political leadership of Russia with people of his own rank. According to the American think tank, it is possible that the military-political ambitions of Wagner’s boss may worry Putin.

The Kremlin chief may have seen Prigozhin’s frequent criticism of the Russian military’s war effort as „disloyalty”. He likely saw Prigozhin’s „aggressive self-promotion” at the expense of Shoigu and Gerasimov — people who have been loyal to Putin and his regime for years — as a threat. Putin and the Russian Defense Ministry will likely use Prigozhin as a „scapegoat” once the fight over Bakhmut reaches its peak, according to the institute.