The Republic of Moldova is Ukraine’s tiny neighbor – and within sight is Vladimir Putin. But Brigitta Trebel of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung says the Moldovan government has so far held firm against Russia’s activities.

Meanwhile, winter in Moldova seems to be over forever. After this year of crisis, this was not only a change of season, but also a political success for the reform-oriented government of the Labor and Solidarity Party (PAS) in the capital, Chisinau, and the country’s president, Maia Sandu. The outlook was still bleak in the fall of 2022: Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine had radically changed Moldova’s security situation as well. If Russian forces succeed in southern Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova could become a focus of Russian ambitions at any time.

The dramatic drop in Russian gas shipments to Moldova has produced Moscow’s desired results: the Moldovan government has suddenly had to manage an energy crisis and imminent supply shortages. Threefold price hikes and up to 35 percent inflation — higher than in war-torn Ukraine — have worsened the social situation of low-income groups.

The pro-Russian opposition party led by oligarch Ilan Shor exploited fears of increasing instability. With Russian help, it organized and financed anti-government protests in Chişinău, sometimes with up to 6,500 participants. In mid-February 2023, Maia Sandu announced for the first time the extent of the Russian hybrid war in Moldova. You talked about Russian plans for a violent change of power.

The energy and security crisis has put so much pressure on the government in Chişinău that actual and urgently needed reform projects, particularly in the judicial sector, can only be treated as a minor issue and have been further delayed. So Moldova can look back on a winter filled with multiple crises, each one of which was difficult to overcome.

Precisely for this reason, the first positive interim conclusion can be drawn: the dreaded lack of energy can be avoided. The government, with the help of the European Union, has drawn up contingency plans for critical infrastructure and built new supply infrastructure with neighboring countries and Western partners. Long-term change: Moldova is already far from complete dependence on Russian energy supplies, and energy independence should be achieved in the next five years.

With the help of European financial aid, it was also possible to cap high energy prices, at least for the low-income population groups in Moldova. Even the anti-government protests in Chişinău did not lead to a nationwide protest movement. Ilan Schor and his supporters could in no way create an atmosphere in Moldovan society that would favor the overthrow of the government or the president.

President Maia Sandhu has taken a clear stance on security issues. It condemned the Russian attack on the neighboring country and has been striving ever since to consolidate its steadfastness. To this end, the government has initiated reforms to its security forces and has continued to combat hybrid threats in the country. Already in March, the Moldovan police detained people with Russian passports. They are suspected of allowing the violence to escalate on behalf of Russia, especially during the protests.

The prospects of the Republic of Moldova also contribute to the positive conclusion after this winter of crisis, since the status as a candidate for the European Union gives the country prospects for long-term development. This is urgently required for the country’s economy, which is still underdeveloped. In addition, democratic reforms are now more urgent, as the judicial reform envisaged by the government is an essential part of the negotiations with the European Union.

The successful crisis management in the current Moldovan government headed by Prime Minister Dorren Resin also shows that the ministries and authorities are able to function despite limited financial and human capacities. After a year of war, the neighboring countries Ukraine and Moldova are getting closer to each other. The Ukrainian side expresses its gratitude for the great solidarity of Moldova with the Ukrainian refugees.