Mikolaev attacked with cluster bombs and heavy artillery
The Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv was bombed several times, with Russian attackers reportedly using cluster bombs and heavy artillery. WELT reporter Stephen Schwarzkopf reports on the ruins of the city and from the war on the front.
According to North Korean state media, Russian President Putin has announced that he aims for closer ties with the isolated country. The two countries share a border in eastern Russia. Kim Jong Un has supported Putin’s path in the past. More in the live stream.
DrRussian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un want to develop relations between their two countries. North Korean state media reported Monday, in a letter to Kim on the day Korea was liberated from Japanese colonial rule (1910 to 1945), that Putin wrote that both sides share a tradition of bilateral friendship and cooperation.
Putin was quoted as saying that it is in the interest of the peoples of the two countries to develop relations. It will also help „strengthen security and stability on the Korean Peninsula and throughout the Northeast Asian region.”
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, largely isolated North Korea pledged its political support for Putin’s path. In July, for example, the leadership in Pyongyang, after Russia and Syria, recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, separated from Kyiv, as independent states. As a result, Ukraine severed diplomatic relations with North Korea.
According to reports from North Korea, Kim also sent a salute to Putin. In the letter, Kim, for his part, expressed his belief that friendly relations „are consolidating in all areas.” The basis for this is the agreements that the two countries reached at their summit in April 2019 in the Russian city of Vladivostok.
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All developments in the live broadcast tape:
6:26 a.m. – Zelensky appeals to the Russians – those who remain silent support the war
Ukrainian President Zelensky called on the Russians to protest the war. „Evil is occurring on such a scale that silence amounts to complicity,” he said in his video address on Sunday. „If you have Russian citizenship and you remain silent, it means that you are not fighting, which means that you support it,” Zelensky said. Contrary to previous appeals addressed to the inhabitants of the belligerent neighboring country, the president addressed them not in Russian, but in Ukrainian.
According to opinion polls, the majority of Russians support the course of President Vladimir Putin. However, the validity is uncertain. The Russian power apparatus severely punishes outspoken criticism of the war.
02:35 a.m. – Russian army advances into Donbass
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russian army has won on the ground near the small town of Pakhmot in Donbass, which has been under attack for days. Report the situation in Kyiv spoke of the „partial success” of the Russians. Attacks were repulsed in other places, such as Pisky outside Donetsk. With strong positions near Pesci, the Ukrainian army has prevented pro-Russian separatists from repairing and using the city’s devastated airport militarily since 2014.
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1:00 am – 42 countries demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from nuclear power plants
In the dispute over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, Ukraine can count on the broad support of Western countries. 42 countries and the European Union issued a statement in Vienna calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from the power plant and the return of control to Ukraine. Artillery shells fell again in the town of Enerhodar, adjacent to the nuclear power plant. For weeks, Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of bombing Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, causing a nuclear disaster.
„The concentration of the Russian army and weapons in the nuclear facility is unacceptable,” the Vienna statement on Zaporizhia said on Sunday. It is signed on behalf of the European Union and its member states, but also by countries such as the USA, Great Britain, Norway, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Russia is violating the safety principles to which all member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency have adhered.
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The Russian Black Sea Fleet was partially destroyed or severely damaged in the Ukrainian war off Crimea. Now Russia is rearming and is frantically assembling two new ships for the navy.
MOSCOW – Since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, Ukrainian forces have been inferior to Russia in some respects: Ukraine has fewer soldiers at its disposal and fewer weapons and ammunition. However, the attacking country has repeatedly managed to inflict significant losses on Vladimir Putin’s forces. This is precisely what Russia would like to begin now – assembling its fleet again after several successful attacks by Ukraine on the Russian navy. But it will likely take some time before the warships are deployed.
Ukraine has repeatedly succeeded in attacking the Russian Black Sea Fleet off the Crimean Peninsula
A few weeks ago, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet largely withdrew from Crimea. The sea off the occupied peninsula has long been a popular target for Ukrainian attacks. For example, Ukraine was able to sink the naval flagship “Moskawa” shortly after the war began, followed by other destroyed ships in February and March 2024, such as the Russian patrol boat “Sergei Kotov.”
It is now said that Ukraine has managed to destroy or damage about a third of Putin’s entire fleet. Many of the attacks were carried out with Navy drones.
After heavy losses: Russia wants to expand its fleet in the Black Sea with two warships
Like the Ukrainian centerRapid defense Reports now indicate that Putin is already working to modernize the badly damaged Black Sea Fleet. Accordingly, Russia wants to put a Karakurt-class corvette and a Vasily Bykov-class heavy patrol boat into service soon.
The new additions will be manufactured for the Russian Navy at the Zelenodolsk shipyard in the Russian Republic of Tatarstan. Since 1895, the shipyard has mainly manufactured warships, which were usually later used by the Black Sea Fleet or the Baltic Fleet. The launch is scheduled to take place one day in May, although the Russian Defense Ministry has not yet announced a specific day.
New warships used in the Ukraine war? Russia still has to be patient
However, the launch only symbolizes the end of the manufacturing phase, and further on-water work and testing will follow Rapid defense. In the case of the Karakurt class, it could take up to three years for the ship to be launched after launch, for example Ukraine war can be used. The patrol boat should be much faster. The previous ship, „Sergei Kotov”, which was sunk by Ukrainian forces last March, was in service with the Russian Navy after about a year and a half. It is scheduled that a Ka-27 combat helicopter will be stationed on board the patrol ship, as happened previously on the destroyer “Sergei Kotov.”
It remains to be seen how useful Russia’s frantic attempt to rebuild the Black Sea Fleet will be in the Ukraine war. However, one thing is clear: the country ruled by Vladimir Putin will suffer more damage in the ongoing war. In addition to military objectives, there are also… The number of casualties among Russian soldiers is enormous. However, putting an end to the war does not appear to be on Putin’s agenda. A major offensive is currently being planned for the summer, and forces in eastern Ukraine are also trying to advance into Ukraine. (Prophet)
Despite expected GDP growth, Russia suffers from high inflation and revenue shortages. The future of war financing remains uncertain.
MOSCOW – Within a few years, the Russian economy has turned into a war economy. It is now completely dependent on arms production and trade China and its ongoing oil and gas business, which continues to find buyers despite Western sanctions. Despite the World Bank’s forecast that GDP may reach 3.2% this year, the economic situation in Russia is not rosy at all. With inflation so high, fears of expropriation and labor shortages due to forced conscription, the country faces greater challenges than ever before.
The Russian economy is losing relevance: inflation is still high
Newsweek Reports indicate that the Russian economy will contract starting in 2025 and then steadily until the end of the decade. According to the International Monetary Fund, GDP will not exceed 1.8 percent next year. The war economy is not a sustainable economy, and as long as President Vladimir Putin continues his bloody war in Ukraine, economic dependence on the conflict will continue to increase. Despite significant interest rate increases by the Russian Central Bank last year, the inflation rate remains at 8%. The central bank expects the average inflation rate to reach 4.8 percent for the year 2024.
It remains uncertain how Putin plans to finance his war after 2024. Russian economist Igor Lepsiz said in an interview with a newspaper in early April. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ): “It seems to me and other economists that Russia will still be able to finance the war this year, but then it is not clear where the money will come from.”
The state’s sources of income are getting smaller and smaller, which is only now becoming clear. Gazprom is an example of this, as it recorded losses for the first time in its history in 2023. Instead, the state is incurring more and more debt, the repayment of which will constitute a heavy burden on the budget in the near future. According to experts, the main problem is the current shortage of skilled workers, which is exacerbated by mobilization in Russia. “The state is expanding the arms sector, which then takes over the healthy cells of the civilian economy like a cancer,” says Igor Lepsiz.
Putin will do everything in his power to win the war against Ukraine
Lipsez expects Putin and his power structure to do everything in their power to continue raising money for the Ukraine war – even if it means collapsing the financial system or cutting the population’s pensions. According to Lepsis, pensions have not already been adjusted as they should be due to the high inflation rate.
Vasiliy Astrov of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) shares this assessment. He believes that Putin will always find a way to continue the war. „Putin will not run out of money for war,” the Russian expert said last week. Astrov added: “For the Russian economy, the question is what will come after the war, because it is currently completely dependent on it.”
Due to the shortage of skilled workers and the state-controlled war economy, real wages in Russia rose by about eight percent last year, while private consumption increased by 6.5 percent, according to a report by the institute specializing in Eastern Europe.
However, Igor Lepsiz does not believe that anything will change in Putin’s power if economic problems become more evident among the population. “Any deterioration in the economic situation will not lead to mass protests. Even if food can no longer be bought except with stamps, as happened in the Soviet Union, which I believe will soon become possible, people will put up with it. Then people starve, pensioners take only cheap medicine and simply die. He told the radio that the political situation will not change had won.
A Ukrainian general is currently calling for consistency: he fears Russian aggressive expansion. NATO’s efforts come too late.
KIEV – “We must help Ukraine defend itself against Russian tanks and heavy artillery,” said politician Vytautas Landsbergis, and Europe must not surrender to Putin. Online time. It was 2015, and reality proved the former Lithuanian head of state right – at the time, Vladimir Putin had just annexed Crimea in violation of international law. The Baltics still fear the expansionist orientation of the Russian dictator. “We feel that war is close to us,” the newspaper quoted the quote. ZDF Gabrielus Landsbergis. Now the Lithuanian Foreign Minister’s fears have been reinforced by Ukrainian Major General Vadim Skibitsky, who expects Putin to be able to invade the Baltic states within seven days.
Newsweek Reports on an interview with Skibitsky EconomistAccording to the magazine, the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence demanded that the West take decisive action against Russia: “The Russians will seize the Baltic region in seven days,” he said out loud. Newsweek. „NATO’s response period is ten days.” Skibitsky uses May 9th as an opportunity to warn of Russia’s ambitions – May 9th is celebrated in Russia as the Soviet Union’s „Victory Day” over Nazi Germany, as is May 9th. Deutschlandfunk They are published, but with their own historical interpretation: the state constructs heroic stories rather than remembering suffering, say Thelko Grace and Florian Kellermann. According to Ukrainian intelligence officer Skibitsky, the fighting will escalate into a Russian attack in the near future.
The fateful day: May 9th may prompt Russia to launch more attacks
Russia is expected to follow through on the “liberation” plan, he said Economist He said that all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions would be pushed forward and that his further measures would depend on this. “The speed and success of the advance will determine when and where the Russians strike next,” Skibitsky said. According to estimation, it could be May 9 Deutschlandfunks In fact, activate Russia’s actions – Russia, according to its own thinking, is on the defensive; The Russian people will also be made aware of this through various channels, from posters to social networks: “This time Nazism has taken root in Kiev and is receiving active assistance from Warsaw, Berlin and Washington. Russia is now, as it was then,” Gries and Kellerman say. „You fight as a champion of good against evil, which is inevitable for the Russians.”
“The Baltic side of the border is likely to become one of the most heavily fortified peacetime borders in the world.”
According to them, the war in Ukraine, in Russian thought, is a continuation of the “Great Patriotic War,” as World War II is called in Russia. The Baltics could actually become the second chapter after Ukraine. “The era of Putin’s wars has begun,” Lithuanian newspaper Landsbergis wrote in 2015. Online time. In any case, the Baltic states are preparing to defend their independence. On March 11, 1990, Lithuania declared its independence from the Soviet Union, followed by Estonia and then Latvia on August 20 and 21, 1991.
At the beginning of World War II, Hitler and Stalin partitioned Eastern Europe between them through a non-aggression pact in order to assert their influence in the countries involved. Federal Agency for Civic Education He writes: The Soviet Union therefore occupied the Baltic region, established its own regime and declared “the accession of states as Soviet Socialist Republics to the USSR, while the Baltic states classify this to this day as occupation and annexation in violation of international law.” Law.”
Fateful months: “They always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us”
In any case, the Ukrainian soldier Skibitsky sees a rosy future for his country, as he put it Economist I explained to him: “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. “They always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us,” says the intelligence officer, facing his boss, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has halted peace negotiations with Russia. Skibitsky speaks out against this Economist For negotiations. It may become unavoidable at some point. On the other hand, the Baltics seem to be intensifying the course of confrontation.
It has been clear since mid-January that the three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are working to create a common defense line – a series of bunkers along the line of contact between the Baltics and Russia. Lukasz Milewski sees this defensive belt as “a completely logical answer to the special geostrategic challenges” that the Baltic states face vis-à-vis Russia. Foreign Policy Research Institute From Philadelphia. On the other hand, the world expresses doubts that this fortification on the borders of three NATO partners could reinforce the Russians’ claustrophobia towards NATO and encourage them to engage in a strategic, tactical or operational confrontation. Or more simply: Vladimir Putin may feel more challenged by this.
A Community of Destiny: Baltic and Russian Minorities
After all, border problems are a cause of air disturbances between the Baltic states and their neighbors; Russia reacts with equal annoyance to the Baltic alliance with NATO as well as to the situation of Russian minorities in the Baltic region, which ultimately inflames the dispute over the autonomy of the Baltic states again and again: it is clear that both sides equally view The foreign policy of the other side. As a threat to their respective independence is true. the Federal Agency for Civic Education Ethnic Russians make up 25.6% of the population of Latvia, 24.9% in Estonia, and 4.8% in Lithuania – a potentially attractive reason for Vladimir Putin to take similar action in the Baltics as he did with the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“The ultimate hope is that the increased preparedness of the Baltic states and the broader coalition to fight Russia, which includes building the Baltic defense line, will be enough to persuade the Kremlin to act,” Milevsky wrote. The world in Eastern Europe is currently in limbo.
An ominous year: the first anti-Russian bunkers are scheduled to be built in 2025
The first of 600 shelters is scheduled to be built in 2025, the magazine wrote Break the defense; In addition, warehouses are being created to store materials needed for anti-tank barriers. the ZDF He talks about „Iron Curtain 2.0”. Milewski says the opposite ZDF: “The Baltic side of the border is likely to become one of the most heavily fortified peacetime borders in the world.”In general, the Baltic states expect Russian forces to march on their territory within a maximum of five years, or more likely within three years. This is what Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said times express to. But at the same time, it is doubtful that Russia will allow these measures to go ahead without reaction.
Until now, NATO had relied on its ability to quickly move reinforcements to the Baltic states in the event of a defence. It becomes clear again and again that logistical efforts under enemy influence will be difficult. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine shows that strengthening the walls of the Baltic states can effectively delay attacking forces, writes Justina Budgenite Fröhle Center for European Policy Analysis In Washington, DC. It speaks of the Baltic forces and their efforts as NATO’s „tumble forces,” that is, the forces that Russia must stumble first. Such as Latvia news portal lsm.lv As reported in mid-January, the former Supreme Commander of the Latvian Armed Forces spoke on the radio in favor of his country’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Agreement.
Question of Fate: Is Putin simply timing this?
Raymonds Graub wants to be free to operate outside the agreement to secure its territory with landmines or anti-personnel mines; And also because Russia itself has moved away from the agreement. Graub declared loudly in January lsm.lv„,”That mines can reduce the speed of the enemy’s advance. “And in the case of Latvia, given the size of the territory and other special features, I think it is a very important weapon.” But planned bunkers and anti-tank barriers may be sufficient. Lukasz Milewski remains skeptical: In the absence of Putin’s action, no one can say for sure why he remains quiet. Maybe he’s been putting it off, Milewski says, or maybe he’s not really interested, or maybe he’s just waiting for the right time.
