Ukraine destroys tank after tank – always setting new records, but Russia is strict. Experts believe that the country will be able to rearm itself at a rapid pace.

Avdiivka – Andrew Perpetua is amazed – up X (previously Twitter) writes: These are the losses today: 100 pieces. „The biggest amount I've ever counted in one day.” Analyst Perpetua compiles vehicle losses for both sides in the Ukraine war and posts daily lists of them on his channel. He reached the shockingly high figure on Saturday (February 3).

Russia subsequently lost at least 54 vehicles that day. 16 others were damaged. Ukrainian losses appear to have been light: nine vehicles were destroyed, abandoned or captured and a further 21 vehicles were damaged. Forbes This prompts one to say: „This Saturday was one of the worst days of the war for Moscow.”

Forbes He goes further: “The clock is ticking. The Kremlin may run out of combat vehicles within six months.”

A few days ago, Vladimir Putin's forces had lost an entire column in one fell swoop in the middle of the day. Video footage on social media shows this Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian armored convoy – All vehicles are said to have been destroyed; Including three main battle tanks, an armored personnel carrier and seven armored vehicles. They march in the middle of the day without any cover, infantry support, or weather monitoring. Your goal should be according to the information received from picture The goal was probably to encircle the disputed town of Novomychalevka from the south and advance to the strategically important road to Wohledar. The target appears to have been the positions of the 72nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade in Ukraine.

Russia is cavalier about losses; what breaks simply stays put

Russia can no longer take full advantage of everything – Ukraine is clearly destroying things faster than Putin can fix them. However, losses are calculated in Russian military tactics: the Russians always think of people and materials as a group and pay little attention to the individual person or individual vehicle; However, some recorded vehicle losses are only temporary losses from the battle: “The Russians assume that they will push forward sooner or later anyway; in this regard, tank strike crews simply exit and return to the next tanks,” says Ralf Rath. „The wreckage and they know that someone will take care of it.” The historian is director of the German Tank Museum in Münster.

During the first two years of the war, the Russians lost, according to analysts oryx About 80 armored personnel carriers per month. If this rate of loss continues in the current year, and at the same time the production of new armored personnel carriers remains stable at 30 to 40 per month, it is expected that the Kremlin will run out of combat vehicles in about two years. Forbes. Maybe by 2026. The situation will become precarious if Russia loses more and more vehicles to Ukraine – perhaps at a faster pace than before. According to Perpetua's tally on Sunday, they lost 13 tracked IFVs in one more day – plus additional wheeled IFVs.

Russia will likely reach the end of its technical strength sooner than expected

Journalist David Ax rubbed his eyes: “This means a monthly loss of about 400 armored personnel carriers. That is, five times the rate we observed in previous years. Unless the situation changes in Putin's favor, Russia will no longer be able to provide vehicles for another two years of war.

German sources divide the list of missing Russian military equipment into four categories: “destroyed,” “damaged,” “abandoned,” and “captured”; 1,776 vehicles were destroyed, 644 damaged, 723 abandoned and 2,933 units captured intact by the enemy. Total loss of combat power of 14,265 units – Oryx's figures agree with this, while other sources are actually very crude.

The numbers are determined on the basis of evaluated satellite images – clearly evidence of Ukraine's correct tactics, even if the hoped-for success of the counterattack has not yet been achieved. Using Avdiivka as an example, German political scientist Carlo Massala explains Hamburger Ebenblatt, that Ukraine decided to hold Avdiivka for as long as possible so that Putin's forces would be as depleted as possible. Masala expects a “tactical withdrawal,” as he put it, from the city every hour. However, the Russians continue to fight doggedly for the city, without giving it much tactical importance – it represents a symbol of the mutual test of strength.

The silver lining for Ukraine: territory loss is limited

The better news for the Friends of a Free Ukraine, according to media reports, is how much ground the Ukrainians would lose if they destroyed Russian assault units: very little. On one of the fiercest days of the war, the Russians advanced a hundred meters in the south and about 1,000 meters in the north in the most violent part of the front – around Avdiivka. However, reports of diminished Russian capabilities continue to emerge from time to time. For example, he had Daily Mirror As early as mid-August last year, there was suspicion that Russia would soon be fighting with its latest cartridge – but that was not the case.

According to photos available at that time, Russia was supposed to have picked up hundreds of old Soviet tanks from a military warehouse in Siberia. Five months before the start of the Russian War of Aggression, some 3,840 tanks and vehicles from the Soviet Union were still stored in the warehouse near the city of Ulan-Ude – probably covering more than ten square kilometres. Moscow Times had claimed. The site is expected to open in November 2022 Only about 2,600 military vehicles remain. Satellite images taken from a mapping platform Google Maps Used ones show larger gaps between the rest of the equipment. It is unclear whether the vehicles were sent to the front or were used as donor parts.

After the first year of the war, it is estimated that Vladimir Putin's forces still possess more than 12,000 battle tanks, a number that NATO clearly exceeds with modern vehicles. Based on current developments, there may be slight doubts about the extent to which Russia will be able to gain a military foothold again in the coming period. Completely independent of the outcome of the Ukraine war.

But NATO Commander-in-Chief Christopher Cavoli swears to himself that after the war ends and the modernization process stops, Russia will return to Europe stronger than before. Hamburger Ebenblatt Quote: Within five years of the end of the war, an aggressive Russia had managed not only to modernize its army, but even to expand it into a larger and more capable armed force. This includes a modernization program with new technologies that the West should be concerned about – “from the Avangard hypersonic glide weapon, which carries nuclear bombs to their target at several times the speed of sound and on an unpredictable trajectory, to the underwater nuclear weapon.” . Poseidon drone, which could trigger a radiation tsunami. However, Cavoli ignores the topic of tanks. The potentially massive tank formations of the Cold War may have been overtaken by current warfare dynamics.