Every missing ship makes Russia more nervous: Sergei Shoigu has now ordered the reinforcement of the Crimean Peninsula – where the use of nuclear weapons has become possible.

SIMFEROPOL – Despite the constant threat, Russian sailors probably had no idea what was heading toward them in the dark of the night. A compilation of videos from Ukrainian intelligence sources suggests that at most a sailor opened fire at the last second. But that no longer makes any sense anyway: No Majora 5 drone Hit the left flank of Tsar Kunikov. Maybe it was a warship from Russia Hit by two drones – the ship sank on February 14 off the coast of Crimea. Another blow from the Ukrainian defenders against Vladimir Putin Black Sea Fleet.

Now Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has visited Crimea and called for strengthening its defenses Ukrainska Pravda He writes. Shoigu urged his subordinates to „conduct continuous training during the day and night to counter enemy terrorist attacks” and „increase the survivability of ships and the security of infrastructure in the area of ​​state responsibility.” He also ordered the installation of additional firearms, including heavy machine gun systems Attack drones To destroy.

Crimea still has what it takes to become a decisive theater in the Ukrainian war, military economist Marcus Keogh said in an interview with The New York Times Magazine. Daily news “Crimea is not only the logistical center, but also the military strength of the entire Russian operation against them,” he said. UkraineThat is why it will be a major end to the war, perhaps sooner than some expected.” Russian efforts seem to prove this: Washington Post He wants Russian fortifications in images from a satellite service Maxar Their exact location has been determined and now adds up to more than 30 kilometers of trenches in the Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine's naval counterattack: gradual destruction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet

According to Russian media, the army has more than 200 facilities spread across the peninsula: air bases, ammunition depots and barracks. Tens of thousands of soldiers are said to be stationed there. The port of Sevastopol is the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Everywhere, the invading Russian army appears to have suffered heavy casualties in the Storm of the Century without any enemy action. The strike targeted the patrol boat Tsar Kunikov It was also Ukraine's latest prank against the Russian Navy. Crimea is a raw wound for both sides.

However, the defenders at sea are almost making up for Ukraine's failed counteroffensive on land – with the gradual destruction of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Online time Verdict: The Ukrainian military said one-third of them were destroyed or damaged. 24 Russian warships and one submarine were disabled. Independent observers gave a slightly lower figure of 20 ships and one submarine. The Crimean Tatars are raising the price of occupying Russia with them Partisan war To almost unreachable heights.

Russia's humiliation of the Crimean Tatars: the motivation behind the rise of Atesh's supporters

Military expert Gustav Gressel, for example, said that by cutting off land routes to Crimea and attacking supply points with long-range weapons, one could try to make Russia's control of Crimea intolerable. ZDF. The conflict in Crimea began in 2014, and it could end there at some point — or it could mean a rude awakening for NATO. The partisan movement “Atysh” (“fire” in the language of the Crimean Tatars), founded in the summer of 2022, may have played a decisive role in Ukrainian successes in Crimea. The forced recruitment of people from Crimea into Moscow's armed forces has provided the nascent resistance movement with a great opportunity to undermine the Russian military from within, writes Elena Beketova of the Center for European Policy Analysis. Russia is now feeling the effects.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is under increasing pressure in Crimea. He wants to save his ambitious goals for the future: to become an international naval power and ruler of the Black Sea. The Black Sea is the interface between the Russian Federation and NATO. This is what the commander of the German frigate, Joran Swistek, wrote to the research center Science and Policy Foundation“Russia has been pursuing its centuries-old interests in the Black Sea by having year-round, ice-free, and if possible, access to vital sea routes around Europe, which supports its claim as a maritime power.” The intelligence of the partisans refutes this claim.

Putin's strengthening of Crimean occupiers by 2025: a warning signal for NATO

Long before the start of the Ukrainian war, the magazine European Security and Defense (ESD) I discussed a research paper that sought to show “how Russia, in violation of international treaties, transformed this once-thriving resort town into a modern military base and even prepared it for the use of nuclear weapons.” The 20-page document emerged as part of the Vienna-based Forum for Security Cooperation (FCS) of the OSCE (Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe).

high Environment and sustainable development In 2020, the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Crimea consisted of 31,500 soldiers, a much larger number than before the occupation of Crimea, which at that time were recruited solely from members of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. the Environment and sustainable development-The source assumed, even without evidence of a military conflict at the time, that the number of Russian forces would increase 1.5 times by 2025 to allow Putin to carry out large-scale military operations in the southwest, at sea and on the coast as well. As in the airspace over the Sea of ​​Azov and the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. In this regard, the military reinforcements could have signaled an escalation in the annexation of Crimea and could have forced NATO to act quickly.

Moscow's flagship Moskva: former spearhead of nuclear armament in Crimea

Consequently Environment and sustainable developmentDefense correspondent George Mader referred to this early document as evidence that “air and sea means of delivery Putin's nuclear weapons They were transferred to the Crimean Peninsula, while the old infrastructure of Soviet-era camps near Feodosia and Sevastopol is supposed to be renovated” – for example, Bahrov Airport near Kerch. In this context, Mader points out that the Russian Federation has completed Unilaterally the 1997 agreement with Ukraine on the status of the Black Sea Fleet. According to Article 5 of this agreement, the Russian Federation pledged not to acquire nuclear weapons from the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation stationed on the territory of Ukraine. Moscow can still say that Crimea It is no longer part of Ukraine.

However, given the geopolitical situation in Crimea, the potential strengthening of the armed forces with nuclear weapons fundamentally calls into question the multilateral ban on nuclear weapons and puts NATO under pressure to act – and corresponding threats from the Russian side have now been made to the extent Enough. Russia has long deployed various delivery systems and other means by which nuclear weapons can be delivered to Crimea. These included the now sunken cruiser Moskva with the Vulcan missile system, the guided-missile destroyer Smitloy equipped with the Rastrup-B launch system, and the Su-24M bomber unit capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons. Other Russian aircraft that have been stationed in Crimea for some time for training purposes include Tu-22M3 medium-range bombers and Su-34 long-range tactical bombers.