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NATO response to Putin's attacks – experts fear quick action

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NATO response to Putin's attacks – experts fear quick action
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The sky has become a battleground for a potential conflict between Russia and NATO. In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is showing staying power.

Kyiv – Niklas Masohr was wrong. But huge. Or the Americans were wrong. or Vladimir Putin Fool Them All: In February from Russia dictator in Ukraine war It launched its third fireworks display in the form of large-scale air strikes, at a cost of approximately 400 million euros, according to the magazine. Defense Express mentioned. Previously, he was said to have wasted nearly €600 million in January this year.

Niklas Masoher could not have imagined such massive blows at the end of the second year of the war. More than a year ago, the researcher said… Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) In Zurich opposite Federal Agency for Civic Education She clearly identified a different assessment of the situation.

New Air Defense Command: Arrow-3 interceptor missile on an Israeli military base (archive photo). Germany wants to invest nearly five billion euros in two air defense systems. © -/Israeli Ministry of Defense/dpa

“If you look at the observers that way Institute for the Study of War (ISW) In Washington, D.C., the last major missile strike is believed to have been about 100 missiles on the ground Ukraine One of the last major attacks at the moment. Russia will soon not be able to afford to use self-guided precision weapons such as Iskander or Kalibr missiles for such a complex strike – that is, missiles. The Russian army is running out of precision ammunition. “There were only limited supplies from the beginning, and it is likely that a certain percentage of them will be frozen in anticipation of a possible escalation with NATO.” It is a complete miscalculation.

Putin's weapons industry: an inexhaustible arsenal – thanks to German help

Because what is present at the front currently looks different. While many attacks remain stuck on the front lines, Putin's military is expanding its air strikes in the Ukraine war. The Germans and other Western companies are still working hard for the Russian arms industry, according to research by the editorial team Answer-magazine a screen. With international support for Ukraine declining, Russia's arsenal appears inexhaustible. This may also be due to the fact that Western technology continues to be delivered to Russia despite numerous sanctions imposed by the European Union. Despite all the punishments, it is a horror with no predictable end.

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This is what Ukraine has been up to recently:

20 Shahd-136/131 drones from Chuda (Crimea);

29 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers from Ingels (Caspian Sea);

04 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers from Sevastopol, Kursk;

03 Caliber cruise missiles launched from ships in the Black Sea;

03 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Tarhankut (Crimea) and Voronezh (Russia);

05 S-300 surface-to-air missiles from Belgorod region (Russia).

Source: Kyiv Post

Experts still believe that the primary goal of these attacks appears to be to break Ukraine's will to resist. The goal is to worsen the humanitarian situation to such an extent that the Ukrainian population will put pressure on the government in Kiev. To make matters worse, the Russian side currently lacks the necessary momentum to carry out other far-reaching operations to regain the initiative. Masaher: “Such missile attacks are the only means that Russia currently has to strike Ukraine.” It is an expensive campaign. the Kyiv Post Provides estimates for Forbes magazine Latent.

Cost of each weapon type (estimated)

Watch-136 – 47,000 euros

Kh-101 missile – 12 million;

Kh-555 – 3.7 million;

KH-55 -1.9 million;

KH-22 – 930,000;

Caliber – 6 million;

Iskander – 2.8 million;

S-300 – up to 500,000.

Source: Forbes

Given the scale of Russia's attacks, NATO is debating the matter controversially – politicians expect something bad, but science sees Russia's fur slipping more clearly with each day of the Ukrainian campaign. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said Scandinavian countries are currently spreading a touch of panic: Denmark must accelerate its military investments after new evidence suggests that Russia is rearming faster than expected and that it may attack a NATO country within three to five years. Newspaper Jyllands Boston. “Russia’s ability to produce military equipment has increased significantly,” he said.

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It is conceivable that Russia will put Article 5 and NATO solidarity to the test within three to five years. “This was not the NATO assessment in 2023, but the new results that are emerging now,” Lund-Poulsen said. Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) spoke of up to eight years of preparation time. In the short term, the risk of an attack on the Alliance is likely to be low, Lydia Wax says from Tank of thought Science and Policy Foundation: Russia's military capabilities, including its missiles, are sufficient to sustain the war in Ukraine – and in any case, there are no obvious immediate bottlenecks – the average number of cruise and ballistic missiles deployed alone is telling.

Putin's missile losses: 44 out of 64 missiles fell victim to anti-aircraft defense

At the same time, the country may need the remaining capabilities to achieve its political and military goals in Ukraine. However, it is expected that in the medium to long term Russia will be able to fully restore its capabilities. Wax estimates that even then, Russia probably has too few cruise missiles and rockets to wage a long conventional war with NATO. There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine is draining Russian arsenals; In addition, the accuracy of weapons is affected. Of the 64 missiles that recently penetrated Ukraine, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses shot 44 missiles out of the sky. Among them are 26 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, 3 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 15 drones.

So far, Russia appears to have been unable to destroy or significantly weaken Ukrainian air defenses, and is therefore using its air forces in a fairly low-risk manner. Yet missiles are Vladimir Putin's weapon of choice, which is why the solidarity of NATO partners is so important. The second step of the “Sky Shield Initiative” has been achieved since the middle of last year. “To strengthen joint air defence, 19 European countries are currently uniting their efforts to procure appropriate weapon systems and ensure operations,” Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in Brussels at the end of last year. The framework conditions for cooperative procurement are therefore becoming more realistic in order to save costs for Europe and keep operating costs low.

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Putin's Future Terror: Arrow-3 – Experts decry this

Therefore, Germany is also purchasing IRIS-T SLM weapon systems (Infrared Imaging System – Medium-Range Surface Launched Tail/Thrust Controlled Weapon Systems), which have already proven themselves under combat conditions in Ukraine. However, the German army currently lacks systems capable of protecting German territory against long-range missiles. Therefore, the federal government is purchasing the Israeli-American Arrow 3 missile defense system for about four billion euros – a type of satellite that collides with an enemy missile at an altitude of about 100 kilometers in its path and thus destroys it.

The purchase was met with widespread approval in political Berlin, but raised eyebrows internationally. Unlike the Bundeswehr's existing Patriot missiles and the recently ordered Iris-T air defense systems, the Arrow-3 appears to be completely unsuitable for intercepting Russian missiles or cruise missiles. The arrow propels itself high into the Earth's atmosphere, and Russian missiles dive beneath it. Simon Hojbjerg-Petersen, a ballistic missile defense expert, called the Arrow-3 purchase “the strangest purchasing decision I've seen in a long time,” Frank Kuhn wrote.

Con is the project coordinator Arms Control Research Groups in the Natural and Technological Sciences (CNTR) In the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research He argues critically against the Arrow-3: The greatest threat to Germany and Europe currently comes from the Russian 9K720 Iskander short-range missiles and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic weapon as well as Russian cruise missiles. But what all these weapon systems have in common is that they do not leave the Earth's atmosphere during flight. “In other words, the Arrow-3 cannot intercept Russian short-range missiles or cruise missiles at all,” Kuhn wrote.

the Mirror Cohen simply views the purchase as a “quick fix,” and is under the impression “that the purchase, similar to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, was made primarily for symbolic reasons. In light of the turning point in foreign and security policy announced by the Chancellor Olaf Schulz, this would be a fatal signal. It remains to be seen how far Cohen has reached the goal.

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Gaza War: Biden describes the request to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu as “outrageous”

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Gaza War: Biden describes the request to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu as “outrageous”

US President Joe Biden He rejected accusations against the Israeli leadership of committing genocide against the Palestinians in its fight against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

“Contrary to the allegations of the International Court of Justice against Israel, this is not genocide,” Biden said on Monday (local time) in the Rose Garden of the White House during a celebration of the achievements of American Jews in the United States. “We reject that. We stand with Israel.” The US government expressed. The request to issue an arrest warrant against the Israeli leadership is “outrageous.”

South Africa has repeatedly called on the International Court of Justice to take action against Israel, accusing it of committing genocide. UN judges took emergency resolutions demanding that Israel do everything in its power to prevent genocide and allow humanitarian aid.

Joe Biden speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House on Jewish American Heritage Month

Source: AFP/Almond Ngan

The ICC prosecutor on Monday also requested an arrest warrant for crimes against humanity against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant. Arrest warrants were also issued against the leader of the Islamic Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, Juhya Al-Sinwar, and other representatives of the Hamas movement.

Biden reiterated that the US government rejects the actions of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. The American President said: There is no equality between Israel and Hamas.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Biden also indirectly addressed the issue of the detention of an American ammunition shipment due to Israel’s actions in the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, saying: „Let me be clear: I will always ensure that Israel has everything it needs to protect itself to defend against it.” Hamas and all other enemies.”

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Biden also stressed that “my commitment to the security of the Jewish people and the security of Israel and its right to exist as an independent Jewish state is unwavering.” The US government continues to call for a two-state solution that is safe and lasting and brings peace.

Netanyahu calls the accusations “ridiculous”

He expressed his opinion in a similar statement US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken Monday. The fact that arrest warrants have been requested for high-ranking Israeli officials alongside arrest warrants for Hamas terrorists is “shameful.” Blinken said: “We reject the public prosecutor’s link between Israel and Hamas.” He added, „Hamas is a brutal terrorist organization that committed the worst massacre against Jews since the Holocaust and is still holding dozens of innocent people hostage, including Americans.”

Blinken also made clear that the US government believes the court, which is not recognized by the United States, has no jurisdiction in the case. The US Secretary of State stressed that although Israel is not a member of the International Criminal Court, it is ready to cooperate with the prosecution. But “troubling procedural issues” called into question the legitimacy and credibility of the investigation. Blinken also stated that the Attorney General’s actions could jeopardize ongoing efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement.

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Arrest warrant against Netanyahu

Karim Khan, Prosecutor of the International Criminal CourtHe had previously requested the issuance of arrest warrants against Netanyahu, Galant, and Hamas leaders Jiya Sinwar, Muhammad Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. He said on Monday that he believes they are all responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip and Israel in connection with the Gaza war that has been ongoing for more than seven months.

Israel strongly criticized these requests. Head of government Netanyahu He called it ridiculous and accused the prosecution of anti-Semitism. He said: “As the Prime Minister of Israel, I reject with disgust the prosecutor in The Hague’s comparison between democratic Israel and the mass murder committed by Hamas.” “No pressure or decision in any international forum will prevent us from meeting those who want to destroy us.” Netanyahu stressed that Israel will continue the war against Hamas.

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Foreign Minister Israel Katz On Monday, he spoke of the “scandalous decision.” This represents a „direct and unrestrained attack on the victims of October 7 and our 128 hostages in Gaza.” “While Hamas murderers and rapists commit crimes against humanity against our brothers and sisters, the prosecutor mentions our crimes at the same time.” Katz said, according to what was reported from his office: “The minister and the Minister of Defense next to the vile Nazi monsters of Hamas – a historical shame that will remain in the memory forever.”

He ordered the immediate establishment of a follow-up center in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where specialists would fight the decision, whose main goal was to “tie the hands of the State of Israel and deprive it of the right to self-defense.” He wanted to talk to the foreign ministers of the major countries so that they could object to the Attorney General’s decision „and declare that even in the case of arrest warrants, they will not implement them against the leaders of the State of Israel.”

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Israeli President Isaac Herzog rejected the request, calling it “more than just outrageous.” Herzog said that any attempt to compare Hamas terrorists with Israel’s democratically elected government cannot be accepted. Herzog said: “We will not forget who started this war and who raped, slaughtered, burned, mistreated and kidnapped innocent citizens and families,” referring to the Gaza war. He added: „We expect all leaders of the free world to firmly condemn and reject this move.”

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„A crime of historical proportions”

Benny GantzThe former army chief and current member of the war cabinet strongly criticized Khan’s announcement, saying Israel operates with „one of the strictest ethical rules” and has a strong judiciary capable of investigating itself. After the massacre committed by Hamas, Israel is fighting „one of the just wars in modern history.” “The prosecutor’s position in seeking arrest warrants is in itself a crime of historic proportions that will be remembered for generations to come,” Gantz said.

The opposition in Israel also condemned the proposal. Opposition leader Jair Lapid spoke of a „complete moral failure.” “We cannot accept the outrageous comparison between Netanyahu and Sinwar, between the leaders of Israel and the leaders of Hamas,” the former prime minister wrote on the X website.

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Opposition politician Merav Michaeli He described Khan’s decision as „a scandal that the State of Israel cannot and will not accept.” The Israeli leadership „cannot be placed in the same category as a vicious and cruel terrorist organization.” Meanwhile, the leader of the Social Democratic Action Party said that Israel has reached a dangerous and unprecedented level under Netanyahu’s leadership. She added: „It is dangerous for Israeli national security, and for ensuring the existence of the State of Israel.” She demanded: “Netanyahu’s destructive farce must end immediately.”

For its part, Hamas criticized the Public Prosecutor’s request to issue arrest warrants against its leaders. A statement broadcast by the Hamas movement’s Al-Aqsa satellite channel said, „His decision compares the victim to an executioner and encourages the occupation to continue its war of genocide.” The terrorist organization criticized the fact that only two arrest warrants were requested against Israeli politicians.

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International Criminal Court: Biden criticizes the request to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu and Gallant

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International Criminal Court: Biden criticizes the request to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu and Gallant

The president is ours Joe Biden Israel criticized the ICC Prosecutor’s request to issue an arrest warrant for prominent Israeli politicians. Biden said the action was “outrageous.” The US President said: “No matter what this accused proposes, there is no parity – nothing – between Israel and Hamas.” We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.”

Chief Public Prosecutor International Criminal Court In The Hague, Karim Khan had earlier requested the issuance of an arrest warrant on charges of crimes against humanity against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Joao Galante. Arrest orders were also issued against the leader of the Islamic Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip and his deputy, and against the Hamas Foreign Minister.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also made similar comments to Biden. Which Arrest orders Blinken said that issuing arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials, along with arrest warrants for Hamas terrorists, is “shameful.” Blinken continued: “We refuse to link the accusation between Israel and Hamas.” He added, „Hamas is a brutal terrorist organization that committed the worst massacre against Jews since the Holocaust and is still holding dozens of innocent people hostage, including Americans.” Blinken also made clear that the US government believes the court has no jurisdiction in this case. The United States, like Israel, is not a member of the court.

Politicians from other countries allied with Israel also expressed their criticism of the actions of the International Criminal Court. Austrian Prime Minister Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) wrote that this is incomprehensible.

The Israeli authorities can investigate themselves

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the parallel action taken by the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court against agitation They created a false image against Israel. An Israeli army spokesman said, „The simultaneous application of arrest warrants against Hamas leaders on the one hand and Israeli officials on the other hand gave the false impression of an equation.” However, the court will now have to evaluate completely different facts, which the prosecutor detailed in his application.

German foreign politician from the Free Democratic Party Michael Linke also criticized the simultaneous request for an arrest warrant against politicians from both sides: “The simultaneous arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and several leaders of the Hamas terrorist organization is highly problematic. It 'equates to The terrorists and the democratically elected prime minister are with each other,” Link said.

CDU foreign expert Roderich Kieswetter also clearly criticized the prosecutor’s actions. A member of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee said that the request to issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant is a “violent political scandal.” picture. The Israeli prime minister who enjoys democratic legitimacy is treated “like Putin, the war criminal and aggressor,” even though Israel is only defending itself against “Iran and its agents (representatives).”

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Kieswetter also criticized that the criminal court „confuses cause and effect and loses measure and balance.” “Anyone issuing and supporting this arrest warrant is clearly encouraging a reversal of the perpetrator and victim trend.” Kiesfetter called on the federal government to “protest as a member of the International Criminal Court and invite Netanyahu to political talks in Germany.”

Investigating evidence of war crimes

However, SPD foreign policy spokesman Niels Schmid recommended that the Israeli government begin its own investigations into alleged violations of international law in the war in the Gaza Strip. “The Israeli authorities can now begin their own investigations – because the ICC investigations are secondary to the national investigation,” Schmid said. He trusts the Israeli constitutional state. The Israeli authorities should investigate indications of possible war crimes.

Schmidt called on the federal government to accept the procedures of the International Criminal Court. “German foreign policy is committed to international law and its institutions, and must respect the work of the International Criminal Court on this issue as well,” the SPD politician said. „It is important that the prosecutor does not link Hamas’ crimes to Israeli actions,” Schmid said, because he explicitly recognizes Israel’s right to self-defense, but sees potential violations of the principle of proportionality. „Certainly, the prosecutor could have made requests to issue an arrest warrant in two different statements,” Schmid said. , about the fact that the Attorney General filed arrest requests against the Israeli Prime Minister and the Defense Minister, but also three against Hamas leaders, “but from a legal standpoint, they remain two different processes.”

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The former South African president is not allowed to participate in parliamentary elections

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The former South African president is not allowed to participate in parliamentary elections

As of: May 20, 2024 at 4:00 p.m

South Africa’s Constitutional Court has excluded 82-year-old former President Zuma from parliamentary elections scheduled for next week. There are major fears of unrest – and his supporters are threatening violence.

TV channels are broadcasting live, Zuma’s fans are gathering before the Constitutional Court, and the public interest is huge. Little wonder, after all, that the Constitutional Court, South Africa’s highest court, had to decide a highly explosive legal dispute.

A far-reaching decision by the court

The proceedings were not just about the political future of the 82-year-old. Rather, the question is whether the requirements of the state constitution apply equally to all candidates in next week’s parliamentary elections – and therefore the credibility and legitimacy of these elections as a whole.

The judges had to decide whether former president Jacob Zuma could run for a seat in Parliament despite his criminal record.

Supporters of Jacob Zuma demonstrate in front of the Constitutional Court in South Africa.

Zuma has a criminal record

It sounds like a legal quirk, but it’s not. Anyone who has been sentenced to one year or more in prison is not allowed to run for office for five years after the end of their sentence – this is stipulated in the South African Constitution.

According to the country’s electoral commission, this is exactly what applies to Jacob Zuma. In the summer of 2021, he became the first former head of state in South African history to be jailed for 15 months because he refused to testify in court about rampant corruption during his time in office.

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Zuma has State-owned projects exploited

According to an independent investigative report, during Zuma’s rule from 2009 to 2018, Zuma, along with his political and business accomplices, took control of the country and systematically plundered state-owned enterprises such as the electricity company Eskom and the railway company Transnet.

However, Zuma was released after three months behind bars for health reasons. The remainder of the sentence was waived by current President Cyril Ramaphosa. Therefore, Zuma said that the 15-month prison sentence was no longer valid, and that there was nothing standing in the way of his candidacy.

In addition, he was not punished for a crime, but “only” for violating court orders. And: Whether he should be allowed to stand for election should not be decided by the court, but rather later by the newly elected Parliament.

But the South African Supreme Court sees the matter completely differently. A sentence is a sentence, and even the overturning of the sentence cannot change that, the country’s top judges decided in the final court.

Ballots have already been printed

According to legal experts, this measure put constitutional judges in a difficult position shortly before the parliamentary elections. Of course, the legal decision also has serious political consequences.

Without its driving force, Jacob Zuma, as the main candidate, the KP may end up having a harder time stealing votes from the ANC on election day – although Zuma’s name and face will remain on ballot papers in the election. Because they have already been printed and can no longer be exchanged when the election approaches.

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Zuma supporters threaten violence

In a joint appeal, 40 NGOs called on all concerned to respect the decision of the country’s highest court. There is great concern about a repeat of the unrest of 2021. Shortly after the verdict against Jacob Zuma, more than 300 people were killed in riots. Supporters of the former president recently publicly threatened to commit new acts of violence if Zuma was excluded from the parliamentary elections.

Zuma polarizes the country

Zuma has polarized South Africa in a way that no other politician has. This has become even more true since he announced that he will lead the newly founded Knesset Party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Zuma appeared confident on Saturday during an election campaign and set his goal of obtaining a two-thirds majority.

However, according to current polls, MK is far from that. However, the ANC leader and former state president still has many supporters, especially among the Zulu ethnic group to which he himself belongs, despite all the corruption allegations.

Zuma’s former party opposed it

The ruling African National Congress had tried several times unsuccessfully to prevent its former leader from using legal means. Among other things, the ANC wanted to ban the name of Zuma’s new party. MK means „Umkhonto we Sizwe”, translated: „Spear of the Nation”. This was the name of the armed wing of the ANC during the apartheid regime. This lawsuit was rejected, and the request not to accept the Knesset member in the parliamentary elections was rejected.

More and more allegations emerged

New accusations were made against Zuma’s party weeks ago. Among other things, MK is said to have fraudulently registered as a political party using forged signatures. There is also an issue with founder MK Jabulani Khumalo, who was allegedly expelled from the party at Zuma’s instigation and now claims Zuma’s daughter forged his resignation letter.

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Even after the Constitutional Court decided not to allow Zuma to run in South Africa’s parliamentary elections, the controversial former president and his new party will continue to cause political unrest.

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