The sky has become a battleground for a potential conflict between Russia and NATO. In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is showing staying power.
Kyiv – Niklas Masohr was wrong. But huge. Or the Americans were wrong. or Vladimir Putin Fool Them All: In February from Russia dictator in Ukraine war It launched its third fireworks display in the form of large-scale air strikes, at a cost of approximately 400 million euros, according to the magazine. Defense Express mentioned. Previously, he was said to have wasted nearly €600 million in January this year.
Niklas Masoher could not have imagined such massive blows at the end of the second year of the war. More than a year ago, the researcher said… Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) In Zurich opposite Federal Agency for Civic Education She clearly identified a different assessment of the situation.
“If you look at the observers that way Institute for the Study of War (ISW) In Washington, D.C., the last major missile strike is believed to have been about 100 missiles on the ground Ukraine One of the last major attacks at the moment. Russia will soon not be able to afford to use self-guided precision weapons such as Iskander or Kalibr missiles for such a complex strike – that is, missiles. The Russian army is running out of precision ammunition. “There were only limited supplies from the beginning, and it is likely that a certain percentage of them will be frozen in anticipation of a possible escalation with NATO.” It is a complete miscalculation.
Putin's weapons industry: an inexhaustible arsenal – thanks to German help
Because what is present at the front currently looks different. While many attacks remain stuck on the front lines, Putin's military is expanding its air strikes in the Ukraine war. The Germans and other Western companies are still working hard for the Russian arms industry, according to research by the editorial team Answer-magazine a screen. With international support for Ukraine declining, Russia's arsenal appears inexhaustible. This may also be due to the fact that Western technology continues to be delivered to Russia despite numerous sanctions imposed by the European Union. Despite all the punishments, it is a horror with no predictable end.
29 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers from Ingels (Caspian Sea);
04 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers from Sevastopol, Kursk;
03 Caliber cruise missiles launched from ships in the Black Sea;
03 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Tarhankut (Crimea) and Voronezh (Russia);
05 S-300 surface-to-air missiles from Belgorod region (Russia).
Source: Kyiv Post
Experts still believe that the primary goal of these attacks appears to be to break Ukraine's will to resist. The goal is to worsen the humanitarian situation to such an extent that the Ukrainian population will put pressure on the government in Kiev. To make matters worse, the Russian side currently lacks the necessary momentum to carry out other far-reaching operations to regain the initiative. Masaher: “Such missile attacks are the only means that Russia currently has to strike Ukraine.” It is an expensive campaign. the Kyiv Post Provides estimates for Forbes magazine Latent.
Cost of each weapon type (estimated)
Watch-136 – 47,000 euros
Kh-101 missile – 12 million;
Kh-555 – 3.7 million;
KH-55 -1.9 million;
KH-22 – 930,000;
Caliber – 6 million;
Iskander – 2.8 million;
S-300 – up to 500,000.
Given the scale of Russia's attacks, NATO is debating the matter controversially – politicians expect something bad, but science sees Russia's fur slipping more clearly with each day of the Ukrainian campaign. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said Scandinavian countries are currently spreading a touch of panic: Denmark must accelerate its military investments after new evidence suggests that Russia is rearming faster than expected and that it may attack a NATO country within three to five years. Newspaper Jyllands Boston. “Russia’s ability to produce military equipment has increased significantly,” he said.
It is conceivable that Russia will put Article 5 and NATO solidarity to the test within three to five years. “This was not the NATO assessment in 2023, but the new results that are emerging now,” Lund-Poulsen said. Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) spoke of up to eight years of preparation time. In the short term, the risk of an attack on the Alliance is likely to be low, Lydia Wax saysfromTank of thought Science and Policy Foundation: Russia's military capabilities, including its missiles, are sufficient to sustain the war in Ukraine – and in any case, there are no obvious immediate bottlenecks – the average number of cruise and ballistic missiles deployed alone is telling.
Putin's missile losses: 44 out of 64 missiles fell victim to anti-aircraft defense
At the same time, the country may need the remaining capabilities to achieve its political and military goals in Ukraine. However, it is expected that in the medium to long term Russia will be able to fully restore its capabilities. Wax estimates that even then, Russia probably has too few cruise missiles and rockets to wage a long conventional war with NATO. There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine is draining Russian arsenals; In addition, the accuracy of weapons is affected. Of the 64 missiles that recently penetrated Ukraine, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses shot 44 missiles out of the sky. Among them are 26 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, 3 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 15 drones.
So far, Russia appears to have been unable to destroy or significantly weaken Ukrainian air defenses, and is therefore using its air forces in a fairly low-risk manner. Yet missiles are Vladimir Putin's weapon of choice, which is why the solidarity of NATO partners is so important. The second step of the “Sky Shield Initiative” has been achieved since the middle of last year. “To strengthen joint air defence, 19 European countries are currently uniting their efforts to procure appropriate weapon systems and ensure operations,” Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in Brussels at the end of last year. The framework conditions for cooperative procurement are therefore becoming more realistic in order to save costs for Europe and keep operating costs low.
Putin's Future Terror: Arrow-3 – Experts decry this
Therefore, Germany is also purchasing IRIS-T SLM weapon systems (Infrared Imaging System – Medium-Range Surface Launched Tail/Thrust Controlled Weapon Systems), which have already proven themselves under combat conditions in Ukraine. However, the German army currently lacks systems capable of protecting German territory against long-range missiles. Therefore, the federal government is purchasing the Israeli-American Arrow 3 missile defense system for about four billion euros – a type of satellite that collides with an enemy missile at an altitude of about 100 kilometers in its path and thus destroys it.
The purchase was met with widespread approval in political Berlin, but raised eyebrows internationally. Unlike the Bundeswehr's existing Patriot missiles and the recently ordered Iris-T air defense systems, the Arrow-3 appears to be completely unsuitable for intercepting Russian missiles or cruise missiles. The arrow propels itself high into the Earth's atmosphere, and Russian missiles dive beneath it. Simon Hojbjerg-Petersen, a ballistic missile defense expert, called the Arrow-3 purchase “the strangest purchasing decision I've seen in a long time,” Frank Kuhn wrote.
Con is the project coordinator Arms Control Research Groups in the Natural and Technological Sciences (CNTR) In the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research He argues critically against the Arrow-3: The greatest threat to Germany and Europe currently comes from the Russian 9K720 Iskander short-range missiles and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic weapon as well as Russian cruise missiles. But what all these weapon systems have in common is that they do not leave the Earth's atmosphere during flight. “In other words, the Arrow-3 cannot intercept Russian short-range missiles or cruise missiles at all,” Kuhn wrote.
the Mirror Cohen simply views the purchase as a “quick fix,” and is under the impression “that the purchase, similar to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, was made primarily for symbolic reasons. In light of the turning point in foreign and security policy announced by the Chancellor Olaf Schulz, this would be a fatal signal. It remains to be seen how far Cohen has reached the goal.
Könnten der Wahlbetrugs-Prozess gegen Donald Trump jetzt alle platzen? Der Ex-Präsident hatte sich in dem Verfahren an den Obersten Gerichtshof in Washington gewandt und auf Immunität gepocht.
Begründung: als Präsident habe er damals für seine Handlungen im Amt Immunität genossen. Seine Handlungen haben sich aus seinen Pflichten als Staatschef ergeben, argumentieren seine Anwälte.
Jetzt will das höchste US-Gericht diese Berufung im April prüfen. Sollten die Richter Trump recht geben, könnte der Staatsanwalt Jack Smith seine Anklage in den Papierkorb werfen müssen. Damit wäre dann wohl auch der Versuch gescheitert, Trump von der Wahlliste zu streichen und noch vor der US-Wahl im November zu stoppen.
So oder so wird das Verfahren den Beginn eines Prozesses gegen Trump weit nach hinten hinaus verzögern – gegebenenfalls bis nach den Wahlen. Somit ist diese Entscheidung ein Erfolg für den Ex-Präsidenten. Das zuständige Gericht hat bereits die Eröffnung von anfangs geplant März auf unbestimmte Zeit verschoben.
Trump ist in der US-Hauptstadt Washington im Zusammenhang mit versuchtem Wahlbetrug angeklagt. Seine Anhänger Trumps stürmten am 6. Januar 2021 den Parlamentssitz in Washington während der Kongress Trumps Gegner Joe Biden offiziell als Sieger der Wahl bestätigte. Trump hatte zuvor in einer Rede seine Anhänger in einer hitzigen Rede aufgewiegelt. Bei dem Sturm auf das Capitol kamen fünf Menschen zu Tode.
Das Gericht will nun prüfen, „ob und wenn ja, in welchem Umfang ein ehemaliger Präsident Immunität vor strafrechtlicher Verfolgung für Verhaltensweisen genießt, die mutmaßlich mit Amtshandlungen während seiner Amtszeit zusammenhängen“. Sowohl Staatsanwaltschaft als auch Trumps Lager werden in dem Verfahren im April angehört.
Diese Entscheidung hat auch immense Bedeutung für künftige Präsidenten. Sollten diese wirklich Immunität genießen, könnten sie möglicherweise Straftaten im Amt begehen, ohne Konsequenzen fürchten zu müssen.
The frigate „Hessen” inadvertently fires on an ally's drone
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The first live use of weapons by the frigate „Hessen” in the Red Sea was successful. On Tuesday evening, two enemy air targets were attacked. Another drone cannot be shot down previously. It later turned out that it appeared to be an American drone.
DrThe German frigate Hessen inadvertently fired on an allied nation's drone during its operation in the Red Sea. Defense Ministry spokesman Michael Stempfel reported on Wednesday that the German warship had already spotted a drone in the area of operations on Monday that could not initially be assigned to any of the allied nations. Hess then tried to shoot down this drone, but was unsuccessful. He added: „The case was solved because it was not an enemy drone, which did not become clear until later.”
Stempfle did not say which country this drone was later assigned to. However, he explicitly confirmed that before the bombing, Hesse requested all allied countries, and no country announced the presence of its own drone in the area of operations. Only later did it emerge that it was an unreported drone. It is known that there are American combat drones in the region that are not related to the operation in the Red Sea.
How the drone was shot down is now being investigated. According to the industry blog „augengeradeaus.net”, it is an American MQ-9 drone, which is also often referred to as the Reaper. According to available information, it was traveling in airspace without operating the identification friend-foe (IFF) transceiver and without knowledge of the operations centers of warships of other states.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
A short while ago, it was learned that the frigate “Hessen”, which was used to protect commercial ships, repelled an attack by the Houthi militias operating from Yemen for the first time on Tuesday evening and shot down two drones. According to X's account „The German Army in Action”, there were two drones. Consequently, there were no casualties or property damage on board the ship.
According to the industry blog, these drones were shot down with the frigate's 76mm gun and a RAM (airframe missile system). This indicates that the drones have already gotten relatively close to the naval vessel, because these weapons are designed for so-called close range.
Pistorius: The early deployment of the Hessen frigate was the right thing to do
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) explained that the early deployment proved successful by shooting down two enemy drones on Tuesday evening. The first drone was initially spotted and intercepted around 8 p.m. 15 minutes later, a second missile „that was approaching the ship” was successfully intercepted, Pistorius said on Wednesday during a visit to troops in Oberwischtach in Bavaria. According to its mission, the frigate was patrolling the southern Red Sea in the area assigned to it at that time.
The minister confirmed that another incident had occurred the night before, “in which there was also shooting, but no one was injured,” he said. It was a reconnaissance drone. Hessen has contacted all interested parties. “In the end there was no shooting.”
„Hessen” has been participating in the European Union operation to protect commercial ships in the Red Sea since Friday. „Hessen” had previously departed from Wilhelmshaven towards the area of operations with the aim of being able to begin implementing the order immediately after the Bundestag's decision. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the operation would contribute to stability in the region. The operation is considered the most dangerous naval mission in the history of the German Army.
The Iran-aligned militia wants to use attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea to force an end to the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, which comes in response to the terrorist attack launched by the Islamist Hamas movement on October 7.
The Houthi militia said last week that it wants to expand its attacks on commercial ships off the coast of the country. The group's leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, said in a televised speech that they are counting on escalation in response to the Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip. So far, 48 ships have been attacked. He also announced the use of underwater weapons.
The sea route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal is one of the most important trade routes in the world. Due to attacks by the Houthis, who are armed by Iran, major shipping companies are increasingly avoiding the shortest sea link between Asia and Europe – which is greatly affecting the global economy.
A building belonging to Putin's party in southern Ukraine was damaged by explosions. Macron's Foreign Minister is trying to contain the excitement surrounding the presidential initiative. More information in the news blog.
The most important things at a glance
Von der Leyen wants to help Ukraine with frozen Russian funds
9:57 AM: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for the available profits from frozen Russian assets to be transferred to Ukraine. In a speech to the European Parliament, she called for the funds to be used to purchase military equipment for Ukraine. She says this is the best way to use the money to make Ukraine and the whole of Europe safer.
The Chinese representative travels to Ukraine, Russia and Germany
9:22 AM: China's special envoy for Eurasian affairs is scheduled to visit Russia, Ukraine, Germany and the European Union in Brussels this week for talks on the war in Ukraine. Envoy Li Hui's trip represents „the second round of shuttle diplomacy to find a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis,” as the Chinese Foreign Ministry explained. Accordingly, the Special Representative will also travel to France and Poland.
China says „restoring peace” is the most urgent issue at the moment. „In the past two years, we have never given up our efforts for peace and have never stopped pushing forward the talks,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Naing said at a press conference. He added, „Everything we have done leads to one goal, which is to build consensus to end the war and pave the way for peace talks.”
Experts: Russia is making more progress on Avdiivka
8:01 AM: Russia is trying to maintain the momentum of its offensive around the recently captured city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. This is what military analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote. The Russian Armed Forces appear to be „maintaining a relatively high pace of their offensive operations.” These aim to „advance as far as possible into the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more closed and impenetrable defense lines in this area,” the analysis said.
A Ukrainian military spokesman recently said that Russia is working to transform its units in the region from smaller shock forces into larger battle groups and even companies. “Russian forces are currently focusing their attacks west of Avdiivka in the direction of Berdichi, Orlivka and Toninki,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote. In this area, Ukrainian positions are “disappointing” and “problematic,” say Ukrainian military observers, according to the Institute for War Studies report.
However, the difficult terrain with waterways to the west of Avdiivka could soon slow the Russian advance, according to the Institute for the Study of War. This may allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to expand their defensive positions.
Rebels will likely blow up Putin's headquarters in southern Ukraine
7:28 AM: Explosions occurred at the regional headquarters of the Russian presidential party „United Russia” in southern Ukraine. This was reported by the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance. Ukrainian supporters are said to be responsible for the crime that likely occurred on Tuesday morning in the town of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region. The information cannot be independently verified.
Russian presidential elections began on Sunday in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. The National Resistance Center wrote on its website that „the resistance movement forces directed 'peace' to the occupiers and stopped the fake 'elections' in the occupied city.” According to the information, Russia is trying to hide the fact that the explosions were the work of partisans: “In order not to spread panic, the Russians are currently claiming that an alleged drone hit the building, although this is not true.”