BDuring his trip to China, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) wrote on the podium that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not affected by such statements like the Chinese head of state.
A year after the Russian attack on Ukraine, and on the occasion of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, the Kremlin President published a program text on Russian-Chinese relations in which he declared a “new era.” Bilateral relations have reached their highest levels, even surpassing “military-political alliances from the Cold War era.” There are no taboos, we are talking at eye level. There is also talk of a “friendship” with China that is not directed against third countries – and no “bloc” has been formed. Putin's first trip abroad after his „re-election” in March aims to emphasize the good relations between the two countries. The Kremlin head is expected to travel to China in May.
China's ruler Xi responds to Putin's praise with warm words. During Putin's state visit to Beijing last year, Xi described him as an „old friend.” In fact, Russia and China are as close in terms of foreign policy as they were in the 1950s, as China expert Alexander Gabuev of the American think tank Carnegie wrote in an article for the American magazine Foreign Policy. At the same time, the degree of interdependence could not be greater. China is unlikely to see any reason to pressure Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. The country benefits from Putin's war without China bearing a heavy cost. On the contrary: the People's Republic is securing the benefits of Sino-Russian friendship at a high price.
Anti-Western Russia strengthens China's back because Beijing does not have to fear Moscow's questions about its repressive domestic policy or its aggressive foreign policy in dealing with Taiwan and its Southeast Asian neighbors. The Ukrainian war hinders the West's attention and resources, which China also benefits from. On the other hand, China and Russia are expanding their military cooperation: last year alone, the two countries completed three joint naval exercises.
The advantages of close relations are also clear for Russia: as a result of Western sanctions, China has become the most important supplier of cars, industrial machinery and electronic components, including to the Russian defense industry. By circumventing sanctions, China is also supplying Western components that should not actually reach Russia. Meanwhile, Europe's largest importer of Russian energy has been taken over by its large neighbor to the southeast – the country pays a lower price, but Putin can live with that.
Increase trading volume
Putin has long celebrated the growth rates of bilateral trade between the two countries: in the first year of the war, 2022, this rate rose by 36%, reaching $190 billion. The following year, at $240 billion, the threshold that was expected to be reached in 2025 had already been crossed.
However, the impressive growth cannot hide the fact that Russia's share in Chinese foreign trade is relatively small. At about 2.5 percent, it is just a small fraction of the share for which the European Union and the United States are responsible. Despite all the tensions, the West remains more important to China – although not important enough to pressure Russia to withdraw from Ukraine at the expense of its own interests.
Another problem for Russia: Chinese banks are constantly imposing new restrictions on payments from Russia for fear of secondary sanctions, and some banks no longer serve Russian customers. Transactions related to the delivery of electronic components have been repeatedly blocked in recent weeks. This is causing Russian customers to panic: Chinese suppliers now have a virtual monopoly in Russia, Moscow business newspaper Kommersant writes.
This shows one of the negative aspects of Russia's shift towards China. The confrontation between Russia and the West means that there is no alternative to engaging with China. On the other hand, China, which has a strong export economy – in contrast to Russia – does not want to be isolated, and is therefore at least partially committed to Western rules. There is no way out for Russia. Before the Ukraine war, the country was able to maneuver between partners in the West and East, but now only the East remains.
“Russia is entering into a subservient relationship with China,” says Chinese expert Gabuev. Integration into Pax Seneca – the concept of China's control over large parts of the world, male. Editor – The expert believes that this is the only way the country can continue its confrontation with the West. In the long term, this means that China will dictate more rules to Russia than it already has, for example regarding the prices of energy exports. 70% of business between the two countries is already conducted in the Chinese currency, the yuan. Russia's dependence on the dollar threatens to plunge it into a new dependency.
But this should not stop Putin. He is no longer concerned with his country's long-term prospects, but rather with who he supports in the Ukraine war. Aside from the direct military aid provided by countries such as North Korea and Iran, China is undoubtedly one of the countries helping Russia. Gabuev warns that Russia may return the favor at some point. If China attacks Taiwan, Russia could conduct maneuvers in its western territory in order to restrict Western resources and thus give China an advantage.
The expert warns that the West should not place high hopes on driving a wedge between China and Russia. Russia already depends more on China than it ever did on Europe, Gabuev wrote in The Economist last year.
Putin's decision to bet everything on China may continue even after the Kremlin head's death. Even a democratically governed Russia of the future will face great difficulties in freeing itself from its heavy dependence on China.
