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Shrinking population: China is no longer the most populous country in the world

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Shrinking population: China is no longer the most populous country in the world

Shrinking population
China is no longer the most populous country in the world

by Kai Stobel

For a long time, China was indisputably the most populated country. But according to UN forecasts, she will now lose this title. Because China’s population is shrinking – however, the contender for first place continues to grow. But for how long?

China has always been one of the most densely populated regions of the world. This is due to the vast areas of fertile soil and the favorable climate for agriculture. There were also long periods of political stability in the past centuries, and the population survived bloody wars. However, the same applies to India.

Since the 1950s, with the improvement of medicine and agriculture, all dams have been broken: China and India have grown to huge populations. China crossed the one billion mark in the 1980s, followed by India in the late 1990s. Today, just over 1.4 billion people live in both countries – more than Europe and North and South America combined.

While China has long been the most populous country, a change in leadership is now imminent: according to UN forecasts, India will overtake China on April 14. However, according to demographers, this date should be treated with caution: „It’s a rough estimate, a best estimate,” Patrick Gerland, head of the UN’s population forecasting division, told the Associated Press news agency.

Obsolete earlier than expected

Indeed, experts have long predicted that India will not overtake China until later in the decade. The fact that it is almost time for 2023 is due to the continuing decline in China’s fertility rate, that is, the average number of children per woman. This was 1.2 in the People’s Republic, making it one of the lowest rates in the world.

But in India too, the fertility rate has been declining rapidly in recent years, most recently with two children per woman. In the 1950s it was still 6, in the 1990s it was just over 3. Now, for the first time, the significant 2.1 mark is less than a shot, from which point the population inevitably shrinks. So there is no longer any talk of a population explosion in India. However, India’s population should continue to grow for the time being. According to the UN’s average estimate, the country could pass the 1.5 billion mark by the end of the decade.

India’s population explosion has stopped

But why does India continue to grow when the fertility rate is less than 2.1? This is due to the special age structure: more than 40 percent of the population is under 25 years old. Many women are now of childbearing age. If every 300 million children had an average of 2 children, then 600 million children would be born. At the same time, there are just under 100 million Indians over the age of 65. So there can’t be as many people dying as new ones being born.

However, further development in India is accompanied by many unattainable things: in addition to the fertility rate, life expectancy also plays a role, both of which are factors that change unpredictably. So UN projections vary widely at the periphery: the maximum estimate for India is more than 2 billion people in 2100, and the lower estimate is about 1 billion, less than today.

China is already shrinking

For China, the projection range for 2100 is between 1.2 billion and 490 million. The country may already have passed its population peak of 1.4 billion: At the start of the year, the Beijing Bureau of Statistics reported its first population decline in six decades. And the median age, with exactly half the population younger and half the population younger, is 39 in China, which is comparable to a developed country like the United States. In India, the average is 28, more than in emerging countries like Mexico or South Africa.

And China’s population is aging rapidly: the country now has the largest number of elderly people in the world. In 2010, 254 million Chinese were over the age of 60. Their number is expected to increase to about 400 million by 2040, more than a quarter of the population. In India, the proportion of elderly people is likely to be much lower for much longer.

These developments have ramifications for the two superpowers: in India, a growing labor force can also fuel growth in economic activity. In China, on the other hand, there are fewer and fewer adults of working age to support the aging population. As a result, economic dynamics could diverge further, which should ultimately play a role in power and influence in the region. The fact that India outnumbers China is probably more than just a fun statistical fact.

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New Anti-Aircraft Ammunition: US Releases Urgently Needed Military Aid to Ukraine

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New Anti-Aircraft Ammunition: US Releases Urgently Needed Military Aid to Ukraine

New air defense ammunition
US releases needed military aid to Ukraine

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The opening of a new front line in the Kharkiv region by the Russian side will only put Ukraine in trouble for a short time. However, Kiev still lacks ammunition. And now the next batch comes from the United States.

The Ukrainian army is receiving urgently needed supplies. The United States will soon provide Ukraine with additional military aid worth about $2.3 billion (about €2.14 billion) to defend against Russia’s aggressive war. This was announced by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during a visit to Washington by his Ukrainian counterpart Rustam Umzhirov.

Austin explained that the package approved by US President Joe Biden includes “additional anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank weapons, and other critical munitions from US stockpiles.” The “realignment of some foreign military supplies” will also allow the United States to provide munitions for Patriot missiles and other air defense systems “on an accelerated time frame.”

The aid is one of several that have already been made available since the US Congress released new funds worth about $61 billion (€56.2 billion) to Kiev in late April. According to the Pentagon, the US has already provided more than $50 billion in military aid to Kiev since Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine began more than two years ago.

Kyiv prepares to import electricity from the European Union

Ukraine has managed to stabilize the situation on the nearly 1,000-kilometer-long front line after resuming US arms shipments despite continued Russian pressure.

The Russian opening of a new front line in the Kharkiv region has only briefly put the Ukrainian side in trouble. According to media reports, when it comes to artillery deployment, there are now only three Russian shells for every Ukrainian shell instead of the previous five or more.

Given the ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Kyiv is preparing to import electricity from the European Union. Following Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal’s report on the current state of the country’s energy supply, a decision on electricity imports is now necessary, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening video message.

“We are now fully committed to the volume of imports agreed with the EU, and I am grateful to all our neighbors for this help,” Zelensky said. “We are doing everything we can to increase imports and this should be a European solution.” His government is preparing the relevant agreements.

Zelensky called on the Ministry of Energy to inform the population on a daily basis about the state of work in the energy sector, the current deficit and the country’s measures to eliminate this deficit.

Lukashenko warns Kyiv

In recent months, the Russian military has begun targeting and destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The aim of these attacks is also to weaken the population’s will to resist.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said in a speech on the occasion of the upcoming Republic Day on June 3 in Minsk that NATO does not want to end the war in neighboring Ukraine and also intends to drag Belarus into it. “I guarantee you that we will not allow clashes on the border with Ukraine, they will not happen,” he said.

At the same time, Lukashenko warned Kiev to refrain from provocations on the border. “I would like to ask Ukrainians not to play with fire,” Lukashenko said. Minsk will not allow any aggravation or escalation. Just a few days ago, Belarus increased its border forces on the border with Ukraine due to alleged provocations.

Kiev rejected this, saying that Ukraine was simply fortifying its defensive positions on the border. At the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine more than two years ago, Belarus allowed Russian military personnel to deploy from its territory.

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Hurricane Beryl Heads Towards Jamaica

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Hurricane Beryl Heads Towards Jamaica

As of: July 3, 2024 at 1:09 AM

At least six people have been killed in the Caribbean as a result of Hurricane Beryl. Many homes and streets have been destroyed. The storm has been somewhat downgraded, but serious damage is still feared in Jamaica.

Hurricane Beryl has weakened slightly on its way through the Caribbean. As the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced, it has been downgraded to the second-highest Category 4. As a result, the hurricane, which has winds of up to 250 kilometers per hour, is now just below the Category 5 threshold.

The hurricane is now heading toward Jamaica, where severe damage is also feared. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged residents to stock up on drinking water and canned food ahead of Beryl’s expected passage.

A total of six deaths have been reported.

The hurricane had previously left a trail of destruction across the southeastern Caribbean. Beryl made landfall on the island of Carriacou, part of the tiny Caribbean nation of Grenada, on Monday. Footage shows roofs torn off as if they were made of cardboard. Palm trees were snapped like matchsticks and debris was sent flying into the air. “Within half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,” said Grenada’s Prime Minister Deacon Mitchell. Homes on the island were almost completely destroyed.

Grenada has reported three deaths so far, and two people have died in Venezuela. St. Vincent and the Grenadines mourns one death – Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said 90 percent of homes in the Union Islands have been damaged or destroyed. Power outages and blocked roads are making communication with particularly affected islands difficult.

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Beryl is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in July.

In less than 24 hours, Beryl had grown from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday and strengthened further after passing over Grenada. Previously, Hurricane Dennis became the first hurricane to become a Category 4 on July 8, 2005, wrote expert Michael Lowry on the X platform.

Beryl was the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean in July, writes Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane meteorologist at Colorado State University. One reason is the extremely warm seawater. “The current Caribbean ocean heat content is consistent with what we typically have in mid-September,” Klotzbach said. The most active phase of hurricane season is typically between mid-August and mid-October.

Climate change is making powerful storms like Beryl more likely. Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Caribbean are gaining strength at an accelerating rate as surface temperatures rise, according to a study published in October in the journal Scientific Reports. Because of warmer waters and the expected onset of La Niña, a cold-water phase in the Pacific Ocean, the U.S. National Weather Service (NOAA) is warning of a particularly strong Atlantic hurricane season this year.

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Serious riots against Syrian refugees in Türkiye

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Serious riots against Syrian refugees in Türkiye

As of: July 2, 2024 at 5:48 PM

Since the start of the Syrian civil war, Turkey has taken in more than three million refugees. Now there are serious riots against Syrians in Turkish cities – and anti-Turkish protests in Syria.

Carnage-like conditions prevailed Sunday evening in Kayseri, a conservative city of millions in central Anatolia. “We don’t want any more Syrians, we don’t want any more refugees,” protesters chanted. And it’s not just words: Many Syrian-owned shops, homes and cars were vandalized with rocks and clubs and, in at least one case, set on fire.

Although Kayseri is a stronghold of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, the rioters are demanding Erdogan’s resignation. They hold him responsible for the large number of refugees in the country. They accuse the refugees of being the cause of the tense economic situation with rising prices and lack of living space.

Nearly 500 people were arrested.

The protests spread to several other cities on Monday, from Gaziantep on the Syrian border to the western city of Bursa. Police responded with water cannons and tear gas. The next day, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said the number of rioters detained was about 500, many with criminal records.

There have been frequent riots against refugees in Turkey. Ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections last year, the umbrella organization of Syrian associations in Turkey complained of increased violence during the election campaign. Spokesman Mehmet Akter said at the time: ARD Studio Istanbul:

Yes, we see it very clearly. Unfortunately, it was the same in 2019. Before the local elections at that time, the Syrians were the issue of the election campaign. They were accused of all sorts of things, including in the media. After the elections in 2020 and 2021, we had no problems. All the discussions ended in no time.

A Syrian man is said to have harassed a girl.

There are no elections this time. The reason the mob is still roaming the streets is a message that has spread on social media: A Syrian man is said to have sexually harassed a seven-year-old Syrian girl. The man has since been arrested.

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But the violence did not end there. Instead, the tide has shifted: As a result of the riots in Turkey, there are now anti-Turkish protests in northern Syria. “Come on guys, come on, smash the cars!” In an online video that has been viewed nearly five million times in a short period of time, men attack Turkish trucks with paving stones, clubs and iron bars at the al-Bab border crossing. Windows are broken. “Come on, get out! Come on, go back to Turkey!” the men shout.

Speculation about meetings between Erdogan and Assad

In the eyes of the Turkish opposition, the background to the tensions is not the incident in Kayseri, or not only. There is speculation about a possible meeting between Turkish President Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Both have been hostile to each other since the outbreak of the Syrian war.

The potential rapprochement worries Syrian refugees in Turkey, on the one hand, because they fear returning to Syria, and, on the other hand, pro-Turkish rebels in Syria, because they fear for their protection from Erdogan.

A Turkish truck caught fire at the Al-Bab border crossing.

Such a meeting could be arranged as early as this week by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Assad’s most important ally. Erdogan is expected to meet Putin on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that begins Wednesday in Kazakhstan.

Christian Butkrit, ARD Istanbul, Tagesschau, July 2, 2024, 4:18 p.m.

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