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Shrinking population: China is no longer the most populous country in the world

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Shrinking population: China is no longer the most populous country in the world

Shrinking population
China is no longer the most populous country in the world

by Kai Stobel

For a long time, China was indisputably the most populated country. But according to UN forecasts, she will now lose this title. Because China’s population is shrinking – however, the contender for first place continues to grow. But for how long?

China has always been one of the most densely populated regions of the world. This is due to the vast areas of fertile soil and the favorable climate for agriculture. There were also long periods of political stability in the past centuries, and the population survived bloody wars. However, the same applies to India.

Since the 1950s, with the improvement of medicine and agriculture, all dams have been broken: China and India have grown to huge populations. China crossed the one billion mark in the 1980s, followed by India in the late 1990s. Today, just over 1.4 billion people live in both countries – more than Europe and North and South America combined.

While China has long been the most populous country, a change in leadership is now imminent: according to UN forecasts, India will overtake China on April 14. However, according to demographers, this date should be treated with caution: „It’s a rough estimate, a best estimate,” Patrick Gerland, head of the UN’s population forecasting division, told the Associated Press news agency.

Obsolete earlier than expected

Indeed, experts have long predicted that India will not overtake China until later in the decade. The fact that it is almost time for 2023 is due to the continuing decline in China’s fertility rate, that is, the average number of children per woman. This was 1.2 in the People’s Republic, making it one of the lowest rates in the world.

But in India too, the fertility rate has been declining rapidly in recent years, most recently with two children per woman. In the 1950s it was still 6, in the 1990s it was just over 3. Now, for the first time, the significant 2.1 mark is less than a shot, from which point the population inevitably shrinks. So there is no longer any talk of a population explosion in India. However, India’s population should continue to grow for the time being. According to the UN’s average estimate, the country could pass the 1.5 billion mark by the end of the decade.

India’s population explosion has stopped

But why does India continue to grow when the fertility rate is less than 2.1? This is due to the special age structure: more than 40 percent of the population is under 25 years old. Many women are now of childbearing age. If every 300 million children had an average of 2 children, then 600 million children would be born. At the same time, there are just under 100 million Indians over the age of 65. So there can’t be as many people dying as new ones being born.

However, further development in India is accompanied by many unattainable things: in addition to the fertility rate, life expectancy also plays a role, both of which are factors that change unpredictably. So UN projections vary widely at the periphery: the maximum estimate for India is more than 2 billion people in 2100, and the lower estimate is about 1 billion, less than today.

China is already shrinking

For China, the projection range for 2100 is between 1.2 billion and 490 million. The country may already have passed its population peak of 1.4 billion: At the start of the year, the Beijing Bureau of Statistics reported its first population decline in six decades. And the median age, with exactly half the population younger and half the population younger, is 39 in China, which is comparable to a developed country like the United States. In India, the average is 28, more than in emerging countries like Mexico or South Africa.

And China’s population is aging rapidly: the country now has the largest number of elderly people in the world. In 2010, 254 million Chinese were over the age of 60. Their number is expected to increase to about 400 million by 2040, more than a quarter of the population. In India, the proportion of elderly people is likely to be much lower for much longer.

These developments have ramifications for the two superpowers: in India, a growing labor force can also fuel growth in economic activity. In China, on the other hand, there are fewer and fewer adults of working age to support the aging population. As a result, economic dynamics could diverge further, which should ultimately play a role in power and influence in the region. The fact that India outnumbers China is probably more than just a fun statistical fact.

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Hungary: EU Council Presidency: Orban with Trump’s slogan – “Make Europe Great Again”

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Hungary: EU Council Presidency: Orban with Trump’s slogan – “Make Europe Great Again”
outside Urban with Trump logo

“Make Europe great again” – Hungary takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union

Hungary takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union

Hungary holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, which rotates every six months. The country will chair the Council of Ministers until the end of the year and can greatly influence it.

Hungary assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union on Monday. The country will then lead several EU ministerial meetings for six months. In terms of content, the Orban government pushes two themes and places them under a slogan familiar to Donald Trump.

DrHungary will hold the presidency of the Council of the European Union for the next six months. The Budapest government has decided to use its presidency to strengthen the EU’s economic competitiveness. To boost growth, they want to adopt a new agreement, the government announced when it took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union on Monday. In addition, they must better combat illegal immigration – including through agreements with third countries.

The EU presidency rotates among the 27 member states every six months. Hungarian government representatives will chair several ministerial meetings until the end of December, and mediate disputes between EU countries.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is known for his critical stance on the European Union. In the past, he has repeatedly clashed with other member states and obstructed important votes. Most recently, especially with support for Ukraine, which is under attack from Russia, and sanctions imposed on Moscow.

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He added: “The presidency does not mean that you are the president of Europe. Outgoing Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo recently told his colleague in Budapest in Brussels: “The presidency means that you are the one who has to present the settlement.” Belgium has previously held the presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Budapest wants to 'make Europe great again’

How much Orbán will accept this is questionable. Ukraine will continue to play a key role for the EU in the coming weeks and months – both in terms of providing further aid, but also in the country’s ongoing accession talks. EU heads of state and government recently agreed that Europe needs to become less militarized and significantly strengthen its arms industry. It is now up to Hungary to step up these efforts.

The right-wing nationalist Hungarian government had previously made headlines with its slogan for the Council presidency: “Make Europe Great Again” – a modified campaign slogan of controversial former US President Donald Trump. In German, the proverb means something like “Make Europe great again.”

In the past, Orbán and Trump have repeatedly praised each other. It was only in March that Orbán praised Trump as the “peace president” at a meeting, while the American in turn praised the Hungarian president as the “best leader” ever.

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Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner (FDP)

It remains to be seen exactly what this leadership will look like with regard to the Council presidency. But ultimately, the power of the Council Presidency is also limited: legislative proposals come from the EU Commission. The drafting of the legal texts is then finally negotiated by the EU countries and Parliament. In addition, now – three weeks after the European elections – neither the Commission nor Parliament are fully operational. Many important positions still need to be filled. Therefore, it is not expected that many new legislative initiatives will be launched at this stage.

Urban He forms a right-wing party alliance with the AfD as an aspirant

But Orban also wants to expand his influence in the EU Parliament. One day before assuming the presidency of the Council, Orban announced the creation of a new far-right faction in Parliament. The „Patriots for Europe” group includes the ruling Fidesz party in Hungary, the right-wing Austrian Freedom Party, and the populist Czech liberal Ano party. The alliance is open to other parties committed to the “National Statement” signed by the leaders of the three parties in Vienna on Sunday.

With the hoped-for influx, Orbán said, the group would become “the largest faction of right-wing forces in Europe.” Their manifesto contains positions familiar to right-wing, right-wing populist and far-right parties: rejection of immigration and the “Green Deal,” no support for Ukraine under attack from Russia, and dismantling EU integration in order to strengthen the sovereignty of nation states.

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Tino Chrupalla, Federal Chairman of the Alternative for Germany party, during his speech at the closing of the party conference in Essen

The three parties received the largest number of votes in the EU elections in their respective countries. Fidesz has eleven representatives in the new European Parliament, ANO has seven representatives, and FPÖ has six representatives. In total, they have 24 out of 705 representatives on the EU body. It takes at least 23 representatives from seven countries to form a parliamentary group.

In terms of substance, there are many points of contact, especially between Fidesz and the Austrian Freedom Party, with the AfD, which was excluded from the right-wing Identitarian faction shortly before the European elections. On the sidelines of the AfD’s federal party conference in Essen, AfD leader Tino Chrupala did not want to comment on Orbán’s plans when asked on Sunday.

However, AfD MEP Mark Jungen expressed his opinion positively to Deutschlandfunk. „So if it were up to me, we would also be happy to join this group” and his party could „sign the national manifesto” „immediately”. In terms of content, they are „very close to Orbán” and are working on „establishing a formal cooperation in the future”.

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New figures revealed about Russia’s losses

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New figures revealed about Russia’s losses
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How many Russian soldiers have been killed in the Ukraine war so far? There is a disagreement between Putin and Zelensky, and new research brings clarity.

MOSCOW — It’s unclear exactly how high the death toll in the Ukraine war is. Kremlin President Vladimir Putin says Ukraine has lost far more soldiers than Russia, saying the ratio is 1 to 5. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy puts his country’s death toll at 31,000 and says Russia has lost more than half a million soldiers.

According to a report by independent Russian media Medusa And Mediazona As of June 28, newly released mortality data indicates that more than 64,000 Russian men (soldiers and civilians) have been killed in fighting in Ukraine so far. The Ukrainian newspaper reports about this Independent Kyiv.

The research provides the names of 56 thousand Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

Mediazona Documented together BBC News Russian Using open source research, the names of Russian soldiers killed in combat in Ukraine. The research has so far provided the names of more than 56,000 Russian soldiers killed since 2022. In addition, the Russian Federal Statistics Service announced (Rostat) On June 27, data on Russian mortality data for 2023 were published, which allows analyzing the excess mortality rate in males.

Medusa He analyzed the data with statistician Dmitry Kobak, who examined the difference between the actual number of male deaths and the expected number in a hypothetical scenario without war. Russia’s female mortality rate helped provide a benchmark for calculating the expected number of male deaths, as women are almost entirely absent from confirmed names.

The death rate among Russian men has doubled since the Ukraine war

The data will show that mortality rates among young men are higher than before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mortality rates among men overall have also nearly doubled compared to 2022. The results suggest an additional 24,000 male deaths in 2022 and an additional 40,500 male deaths in 2023.

Medusa And Mediazona It was estimated in February 2024, based on estate and inheritance files, that at least 83,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The lower figures are from the statistical service. Rostat It can be loud. Independent Kyiv This can be attributed, among other things, to:, Some military deaths were excluded from the data. (M)

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Ukraine hits Putin’s Su-25 from the sky with Igla MANPADS

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Ukraine hits Putin’s Su-25 from the sky with Igla MANPADS
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A Russian Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jet, pictured in January 2024, drops a missile near the Donetsk front. © IMAGO/Russian Defense Ministry/ITAR-Tass

The Ukrainian National Guard has announced that it has shot down a Russian fighter jet. This means that Kyiv’s forces have already shot down a second Su-25 from the sky this month.

KYIV – Since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, Russia has been losing, according to The Guardian Oryx Database Already 119 aircraft. Ukraine says Russian losses are much higher with 360 fighter jets destroyed – and added another aircraft to its statistics on Friday (June 28): According to the Ukrainian National Guard, forces are said to have successfully destroyed a Russian aircraft in the encircled area. Donetsk Oblast shot down the Su-25 fighter plane.

Ukraine War: Kiev forces announced the downing of another Russian fighter plane

Joint by the Ukrainian National Guard video The Telegram supposedly showed the shooting of a Sukhoi plane: far away and not very clearly, you can see a dark dot in the sky and then falling parts of it. „The Su-25 fighter was shot down by a targeted shot,” the National Guard said. It was the 31st brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine that hit the Igla MANPADS anti-aircraft missile system. It is not clear from the post when and where the shooting took place.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, this was the second Russian Su-25. It was dropped in June. In May alone, Russia lost nine combat aircraft. Like the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on June 1 has announced. This information cannot be independently verified. This is what American war experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said. Communication was done initiallyHe did not receive „any independent confirmation of the downing of these Russian aircraft.”

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Developments on the front: Glide bombs remain a major threat from the air

The threat from air-dropped glide bombs continues; Russia reportedly launches about a hundred of these weapons every day. Kyiv’s forces have yet to find an effective way to counter glide bombs. The only option left is to destroy the aircraft that drop these weapons far from the front line. Ukraine expects to receive its first American F-16 fighter jets this summer. Kyiv hopes these will be able to counter Russian aircraft dropping glide bombs.

Meanwhile, fighting continues on the front. The focus remains on the ground in Donbas, where Russia has the initiative. She added that Russian forces have maintained the pace of their offensive operations in the Toretsk direction in Donbas. From ISW experts in their daily situation report on Thursday. Russian forces have taken control of the town of Rozdolyovka in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said on Friday. There was no initial confirmation from Kyiv.

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